Will the NDA Achieve the Mother of All Victories in Bihar?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- NDA's projected victory with 48% vote share.
- Over 150 seats expected for NDA in Bihar Assembly.
- High voter turnout reflects public trust in leadership.
- Opposition parties question the reliability of exit polls.
- Nitish Kumar's JD(U) may emerge as the single-largest party.
Patna, Nov 12 (NationPress) The recent IANS-Matrize Exit Poll has indicated a dominating win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, projecting a 48 percent vote share and over 150 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claimed this would signify "the mother of all victories." The party is confident that with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar at the helm, the NDA will secure the government with an unprecedented majority.
Union Minister Ramdas Athawale shared his thoughts with IANS, stating, "I believe the Nitish Kumar administration has delivered commendable work for the state. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has made significant contributions to Bihar's development. The high voter turnout reflects the people's trust in his leadership. During his administration, he has made sound decisions and even provided Rs 10,000 to women in Bihar."
BJP spokesperson Pratul Shah-Deo reiterated the optimism, saying, "Since yesterday, the sentiment has been that under Nitish Kumar's leadership, the NDA government will once again achieve a clear majority. Almost every exit poll is predicting a substantial mandate, and none suggest otherwise. This will be the mother of all victories. We are confident that under Nitish Kumar's guidance, the NDA will form the government with an unprecedented majority."
Uttar Pradesh Minister Danish Azad Ansari remarked, "The exit polls genuinely reflect the sentiments of the people in Bihar. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, the Nitish government has made remarkable strides in the state's overall development, focusing on education, health, safety, and employment.
"Our NDA government has transformed Bihar from lawlessness and set it firmly on a path of progress. This has strengthened public trust in our governance, and the record voter turnout proves that the public has endorsed the Modi-Nitish double-engine government."
Bihar Minister Santosh Kumar Suman commented, "The people are the true rulers. We do not celebrate; we believe in action. If the public's decision favors us, we will commence our work with renewed vigor.
"There was a strong wave of support for the NDA throughout Bihar, and it appears we may even exceed the 2010 record. However, this is not a time for celebration. The NDA is committed to action, and from the moment we receive the public's mandate, we will begin our work."
On the other hand, the Congress party dismissed the exit poll predictions, arguing that such surveys often lack accuracy.
Congress leader and former Chief Minister of Rajasthan Ashok Gehlot stated, "Exit polls can be accurate at times, but they can also be misleading. Therefore, we prefer to wait for the real results. Currently, most exit polls show favorable outcomes for the NDA, but we will observe the actual results on November 14."
Congress leader Rajesh Thakur also raised concerns about the reliability of exit polls, stating, "The genuine results will be revealed after November 14. In Jharkhand, exit polls suggested the NDA would win 42 to 50 seats, but the final results differed significantly. Similarly, projections of 130 to 150 seats in Bihar may be exaggerated. Such narratives often aim to sway public perception."
In the meantime, the double-engine government led by Nitish Kumar is poised to reclaim power with a substantial mandate in the fiercely contested Bihar Assembly elections, while the Mahagathbandhan is anticipated to fall to a distant second, according to the IANS-Matrize Exit Poll.
The exit poll forecasts that the BJP-led NDA will achieve a 48 percent vote share, translating to nearly a two-thirds majority in the 243-member Assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure only 37 percent, which equates to around 70-90 seats for the RJD-Congress alliance.
Another significant highlight of the exit polls is the resurgence of Nitish Kumar's JD(U), which faced scrutiny leading up to the elections due to the Chief Minister's health issues.
The exit poll suggests a robust consolidation of JD(U) voters, indicating that the party may emerge as the single-largest entity, surpassing both its ally BJP and rival RJD.
The BJP is projected to maintain its performance, similar to the previous election in 2020, expected to secure 65-73 seats with around 19 percent of the vote share.
The RJD is anticipated to achieve a 21 percent vote share and win 53-58 seats, while its primary ally, Congress, is expected to capture only 7 percent, translating to 10-12 seats.
If the exit poll predictions hold true on November 14, it would signify a significant mandate for the Nitish Kumar government and a devastating outcome for the Mahagathbandhan, despite their vigorous campaign against alleged electoral fraud.
Among the smaller NDA constituents, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), led by Jitan Ram Manjhi, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) under Chirag Paswan, and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha are predicted to secure 2, 5, and 2 percent of the vote share respectively. Collectively, they are expected to contribute 12-16 seats to the NDA's total, boosting it to between 147-167 seats.
For the Mahagathbandhan, constituents like CPI(ML), CPI, CPI (M), and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) are projected to gather 9 percent of the vote share, resulting in approximately 10-18 seats. Altogether, the grand alliance is expected to settle around the 70-90 seats mark.
The Jan Suraaj Party, led by Prashant Kishor, is predicted to make a noteworthy impact in its debut with a 5 percent vote share, while the AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, is expected to secure 1 percent of the vote share.
While Jan Suraaj is projected to win 0-2 seats, the AIMIM may have candidates winning in 2-3 constituencies.
Other parties collectively are likely to obtain 9 percent of the vote share and achieve victory in about 0-5 seats.
The vote percentage and seat share projections from the IANS-Matrize Exit Polls come with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. Over 66,000 individuals were surveyed to reach these conclusions, including over 31,000 males, over 19,000 females, and over 15,000 young voters surveyed until November 11 – marking a record voter turnout in the second phase of polling.