PM Modi's Enduring Appeal Facilitated BJP's Victory in Maharashtra and Haryana; Rahul's Constitutional Rhetoric Fell Short: Survey Insights

New Delhi, Dec 20 (NationPress) The BJP decisively outperformed the Congress and other opposition parties in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections.

The party achieved a remarkable victory in both states and has recently established its governments there.

The Matrize Survey has provided valuable insights into the factors that contributed to the BJP's substantial success in these regions, despite the party's relatively weaker performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

This survey has underscored multiple elements, including the profound impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Congress-led Opposition’s inability to effectively challenge the BJP.

Additionally, the agency has pointed out notable shifts in voter sentiment between the two elections.

The Congress' attempts to leverage the narrative surrounding ‘constitutional changes’ also failed to resonate with voters during the Assembly elections.

The survey was conducted between November 25, 2024, and December 14, 2024, with a sample size of 76,830 in Maharashtra and 53,647 in Haryana.

Key findings from the Matrize Survey

1. Enduring Popularity of PM Modi

Despite the BJP securing only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha elections this year, PM Modi continues to enjoy significant popularity among voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana, according to the survey. His image as a strong and influential leader remains intact. This is a crucial finding, as the survey indicates that voters in both states maintained steadfast trust in PM Modi, which played a critical role in the Assembly election results. Approximately 55% of voters surveyed in Maharashtra noted an increase in PM Modi’s popularity, while 53% of Haryana voters surveyed reported similar growth in his appeal.

2. Setback to Congress' Narrative on the Constitution

One of the most significant factors identified in the Matrize Survey was the blow to the Congress' narrative crafted by its leader Rahul Gandhi during the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress attempted to create a narrative suggesting that the Modi government aimed to alter the Constitution. While this claim initially gained some traction during the parliamentary elections, it failed to resonate during the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana. In both states, the Congress’s efforts to focus on issues such as constitutional changes, farm laws, and wrestlers’ grievances proved largely ineffective. Voters did not perceive these issues as significant during the Assembly elections, leading to a shift in support towards the BJP.

3. Voter Perception of Congress Leadership

Another noteworthy finding from the survey is the considerable lack of confidence in Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, who was viewed as the face of the opposition in Maharashtra and Haryana. His inability to present a credible alternative to PM Modi contributed to the poor performance of the opposition. Voters expressed skepticism regarding the Congress leadership, perceiving Rahul Gandhi as disconnected from the realities on the ground, particularly when compared to PM Modi’s strong and decisive image. This factor significantly influenced the BJP's commanding victory in these states.

4. Shift in Voter Sentiment Between Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections

The survey also suggests that many voters in Maharashtra and Haryana, who previously opted not to support the BJP during the Lok Sabha elections, rectified their decision in the Assembly polls. A primary reason for this shift was the growing confidence in PM Modi’s leadership and the positive impacts of the central government’s initiatives on voters’ lives. The opposition's failure to present a coherent and convincing alternative led to a clear preference for the BJP in state elections.

5. BJP's Strategic Messaging and Leadership

The Matrize Survey also emphasized the significant impact of the BJP’s messaging during the Assembly elections. The slogan “Ek Hain to Safe Hain (When united, we are safe)” garnered approval from voters, particularly in Maharashtra and Haryana. This narrative emphasized stability, national security, and economic growth under PM Modi’s leadership, positioning the BJP as the safer option.

Conversely, the Congress’s divisive rhetoric and internal leadership conflicts only served to alienate voters. The failure to effectively counter the BJP’s narrative was evident, especially in light of the public's dissatisfaction with the Congress' internal factionalism.

6. Local Leadership and Organisational Factors

In Haryana, the change in leadership from Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar to a new set of faces also contributed to the BJP’s success. The survey indicated that the leadership transition helped the BJP regain trust, with 44% of respondents acknowledging that this change had a notably positive effect. Furthermore, the presence of strong local BJP leaders and a well-structured campaign aided the party in establishing a solid foundation, thereby ensuring its victory.

7. The Role of Government Schemes and Local Support

The BJP’s emphasis on local issues and welfare programs also significantly influenced voter support. In both states, the initiatives of the BJP government, particularly in agriculture, infrastructure, and rural development, had a favorable impact. These programs resonated with voters, who felt they had benefited from the government’s policies.

Considering all these factors, the Matrize Survey presents a clear picture of the BJP's success in the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana.

Numerous interconnected factors contributed to this victory: the enduring popularity of PM Modi and the continued faith in his leadership, a significant blow to the opposition's narrative, particularly the Congress’s attempt to exploit constitutional changes, which fell flat in the Assembly elections, voter rectification of their previous Lok Sabha choice, particularly in light of the BJP’s successful governance and message of stability, and the BJP’s effective utilization of leadership changes, messaging, and welfare programs to solidify support.