'Are India’s Unemployment Rates Misrepresented?': Government Challenges Reuters Report

New Delhi, July 23 (NationPress) The Government has officially dismissed a Reuters report regarding India’s unemployment rate, asserting that the article undermined the authenticity of India’s official employment statistics by relying on a perception-based survey of approximately 50 unnamed economists rather than on verified data.

The report casts doubt on the credibility of official estimates, yet it fails to cite any independent, data-driven empirical analysis. According to the Ministry of Labour & Employment, the depiction of a declining employment landscape in India is contradicted by solid, reputable, and globally recognized official data.

The reliance on expert opinions, as opposed to verifiable data, raises serious questions regarding methodological rigor. The ministry emphasized that no details were provided regarding the identities of these economists, the criteria for their selection, or whether they represent a diverse range of independent, academic, public, or private sector analysts.

This lack of transparency may lead to selection bias and ideological filtering. Additionally, the article does not make it clear whether the economists' views stem from rigorous surveys and analyses, nor does it address the structure of the questions posed, the metrics employed, or the standards for interpreting results, thus compromising the replicability and credibility of its conclusions. The Ministry’s statement noted that no information was given about sampling variability, statistical significance, or correlation with macroeconomic indicators.

While expert opinions can offer valuable insights, they cannot replace large-scale, representative, and methodologically sound surveys.

In contrast, the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), carried out by the National Statistical Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), is recognized worldwide as an empirical and statistically robust source of employment and unemployment data in India. It uses a large-scale, stratified, multi-stage random sampling framework that encompasses both rural and urban areas across the nation. Since January 2025, the PLFS has also begun producing monthly estimates alongside its existing annual and quarterly outputs, facilitating timely and detailed monitoring of labor market trends, as stated by the ministry.

The PLFS methodology adheres to international standards, especially the definitions and classifications set forth by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), including Usual Principal Status (UPS) and Current Weekly Status (CWS). Its data collection and reporting methods align with global practices utilized by organizations such as the World Bank, UNDP, and ILOstat, boosting its comparability with international datasets.

The ministry highlighted that the PLFS distinguishes itself through its transparency. The NSO publishes extensive documentation, including sampling design, survey tools, weightings, and margins of error, which are readily available to researchers, policymakers, and international agencies, enabling independent review and validation. The survey captures the seasonal and structural complexities of India’s labor market, reflecting both short- and long-term changes, including migration trends, urban informal employment dynamics, and rural agricultural seasonality.

Globally, PLFS data is widely used for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) reporting, labor market diagnostics, and comparative employment assessments by institutions such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the ILO. This broad acceptance reinforces its credibility and significance within the international statistical community, the statement noted.

According to PLFS data, the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for individuals aged 15 years and older has risen from 49.8% in 2017-18 to 60.1% in 2023-24. During the same timeframe, the Worker Population Ratio (WPR) increased from 46.8% to 58.2%, while the Unemployment Rate (UR) notably dropped from 6.0% to 3.2%. These indicators imply a greater absorption of the workforce into productive employment. Significantly, the youth unemployment rate decreased from 17.8% to 10.2%, which is below the global youth unemployment rate of 13.3%, according to the ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook 2024.

These statistics counter the misleading narrative surrounding widespread youth disengagement and affirm stronger labor market participation, the statement concluded.