New Delhi/Kolkata, April 20 (NationPress) As the temperature rises on the campaign trail, West Bengal is gearing up for a two-phase Assembly election scheduled for April 23 and 29. Political adversaries are set to engage in a contest where victories will be measured in feet, if not inches, rather than miles, indicating an even more heated showdown than before.

This year's election is characterized by several pressing issues, with ground reports and opinion polls indicating a fierce battle predominantly between the Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Other political factions are expected to gain support mainly at the expense of the current government.

The Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) has amplified the unpredictability of the elections, particularly following the deletion of around 91 lakh names from the electoral roll. For the first time, the voter list remains open for new registrations right up to the polling date.

In a groundbreaking move, 'tribunals' led by judicial officers are now handling claims for adding names.

The decrease in the electorate from over 7.66 crore to approximately 6.75 crore post-SIR signifies a 12% reduction, which could lead to numerous tight races. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Trinamool Congress secured 215 of the state's 294 seats, while the BJP emerged as the main opposition with 77 seats, marking a significant 28 percentage point increase in vote share from its 2016 results.

However, analysts highlight that the BJP struggles to make significant inroads in areas with high Muslim demographics.

According to the 2011 Census, West Bengal has about 85 seats where the minority population exceeds 35%, compared to the state average of 27%. The highest concentrations are found in districts bordering Bangladesh, such as Murshidabad (over 66%), Malda (over 51%), North Dinajpur (close to 50%), Birbhum (37%), and South 24 Parganas (approximately 36%).

If other nearby districts, such as Nadia and North 24 Parganas, are included—where the 2011 Census recorded a Muslim population near the state average—this number rises to around 125 seats, where the Trinamool previously performed exceptionally well.

Conversely, in certain Assembly constituencies, the BJP has gained ground due to significant polarization.

For instance, Trinamool candidates faced losses in Malda's Englishbazar by over 20,000 votes, in Habibpur by 19,517 votes, and in Gazole by less than 2,000 votes. In the Maldaha Assembly constituency, the margin was over 15,000 votes. Notably, in the upcoming 2024 Parliamentary election, of the 12 Assembly segments within Malda district, the BJP and Congress each led in six, leaving none for the Trinamool.

In Murshidabad, the BJP won two out of the 22 assembly constituencies during the 2021 elections, capturing Baharampur and Murshidabad from the Congress.

Interestingly, in Nadia, the BJP triumphed in 10 out of 17 Assembly seats in 2021. Additionally, deletions following the SIR exceed the winning margins in over 140 seats, impacting the Trinamool the hardest in Murshidabad (4.6 lakh removed), Malda (2.4 lakh), and North 24 Parganas (3.3 lakh).

As a result, in tightly contested seats from 2021, if Muslim voters are disproportionately affected by deletions, the election outcomes could shift dramatically.

In the 85 seats influenced by minority populations, the ruling party's stronghold may weaken if voter turnout declines by 10-20%, potentially costing them 20-30 seats amidst SIR-related protests and legal challenges.

Meanwhile, the Congress's independent campaign across all 294 seats fragments anti-Trinamool votes, particularly in Murshidabad and Malda, inadvertently aiding the BJP.

With ambitions to secure over 100 seats through Hindu consolidation post-SIR, the BJP faces challenges due to urban-rural divides, and deletions in certain areas could lead to lower turnout or backlash.

The Trinamool remains confident in strongholds like Sujapur and Malatipur (both in Malda), where it recorded victory margins of approximately 1.3 lakh votes and nearly 92,000 votes, respectively.

In Metiaburuz of South 24 Parganas district, the Trinamool candidate won with a margin of 1.2 lakh. The return of Abu Barkat Ataur Ghani Khan Choudhury's heir, Mausam Noor, to the Congress, where she is contesting from Malatipur, may pose challenges for the Trinamool in this election. Additionally, 40 seats are precariously positioned, with victory margins close to 5,000 votes based on the previous state election.