Reduction in Global HIV Funding Could Lead to 10 Million Infections and 3 Million Deaths by 2030: The Lancet

Synopsis

A recent study warns that significant cuts in international funding for HIV prevention and treatment could result in over 10 million new infections and about 3 million deaths by 2030, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable financing to combat the epidemic.

Key Takeaways

10 million new infections expected by 2030.
Potential 3 million deaths due to funding cuts.
Sub-Saharan Africa may be hit hardest.
Need for sustainable funding to avert crisis.
Research conducted by Burnet Institute in Australia.

Sydney, March 27 (NationPress) The drastic cuts in global funding for HIV prevention and treatment initiatives could lead to over 10 million new infections and approximately 3 million deaths by the year 2030, as reported in a recent study featured in The Lancet HIV journal on Thursday.

The research, undertaken by experts at the Burnet Institute in Melbourne, Australia, examines the potential effects of a projected 24 percent decline in worldwide HIV funding by 2026. This reduction follows announced aid reductions ranging from 8 percent to 70 percent from major donors such as the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands—countries that together contribute over 90 percent of global HIV funding.

According to the study, there could be an estimated “4.4 to 10.8 million additional new HIV infections and 770,000 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths among both children and adults between 2025 and 2030 if the proposed funding cuts by these leading donor nations, including the US and the UK, are not addressed,” the researchers indicated.

The US, being the largest global HIV funding provider, ceased all assistance as of January 20, coinciding with the inauguration of President Donald Trump.

The termination of the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), along with other funding reductions, poses a significant risk of reversing the progress made in combating HIV/AIDS as a global health emergency by 2030, the study has revealed.

“Historically, the US has been the foremost contributor to global HIV treatment and prevention efforts, but the current reductions to PEPFAR and USAID-backed initiatives have already hindered access to essential HIV services, including antiretroviral therapy, prevention, and testing. If other donor nations also decrease their funding, decades of advancements in HIV treatment and prevention may be jeopardized,” stated Dr. Debra ten Brink, co-lead author of the study from the Burnet Institute.

The research highlighted that sub-Saharan Africa and marginalized populations who are already at elevated risk for HIV, such as people who inject drugs, sex workers, men who have sex with men, and children, will be disproportionately affected.

Co-author Dr. Rowan Martin-Hughes from the Institute emphasized that, in addition to limiting testing and treatment programs, sub-Saharan Africa would experience cuts in broader prevention strategies, such as condom distribution and the provision of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a medication that diminishes the risk of contracting HIV.

“It is essential to secure sustainable funding and prevent a resurgence of the HIV epidemic, which could have catastrophic impacts not only in regions like sub-Saharan Africa but also on a global scale,” Brink concluded.