IMD Predicts Subpar Monsoon Rainfall for 2026: 95-90% of Average Expected
Synopsis
The IMD has projected that the southwest monsoon in 2026 will likely deliver below-average rainfall, estimating it at 95-90% of the Long Period Average. This forecast suggests potential challenges for agriculture and water supply, making it crucial for stakeholders to prepare accordingly.
Key Takeaways
IMD projects below-normal rainfall for 2026 monsoon.
Expected rainfall: 95-90% of Long Period Average.
Updated forecasts are due in late May.
Weak La Nina-like conditions are currently observed.
El Nino and La Nina phases impact global weather patterns.
New Delhi, April 13 (NationPress) According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 (spanning June to September) is predicted to be below average, estimated at approximately 95-90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This information was shared on Monday.
The IMD's Long Range Forecast indicates that the overall seasonal rainfall for the country is expected to be around 92% of the LPA, with a model error margin of plus-minus 5%.
The LPA, calculated based on the period from 1971 to 2020, is valued at 87 cm.
The IMD also noted that it will provide updated predictions for the rainfall during the monsoon season in the final week of May.
Regarding Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions, the IMD mentioned that weak La Nina-like conditions are currently transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions across the equatorial Pacific. The statement elaborated that atmospheric circulation features in the tropical Pacific remain consistent with these weak La Nina-like conditions. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the possibility of El Nino conditions emerging during the southwest monsoon.
El Nino and La Nina represent opposing phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which involves periodic shifts in sea surface temperatures and trade winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean, significantly affecting global weather patterns.
El Nino (the warm phase) is characterized by weakened trade winds and elevated water temperatures, leading to wetter conditions in the US and droughts in Asia, whereas La Nina (the cool phase) brings about stronger winds and cooler waters.
The IMD also stated that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently observed in the Indian Ocean, and recent climate models predict the development of positive IOD conditions towards the conclusion of the southwest monsoon season.
As the SST conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans greatly impact the Indian monsoon, the IMD is vigilantly observing the evolution of sea surface conditions in these oceanic regions.
Point of View
The forecast by the IMD regarding below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026 raises important considerations for agricultural stakeholders, water resource management, and climate adaptation strategies. It emphasizes the need for preparedness to mitigate potential adverse effects on food security and livelihoods.
NationPress
3 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expected rainfall percentage for the 2026 monsoon?
The IMD forecasts that the 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall is likely to be around 95-90% of the Long Period Average.
When will the updated forecasts for the monsoon season be released?
The IMD is set to release updated forecasts for the monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May.
What are El Nino and La Nina?
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, affecting global weather patterns through changes in sea surface temperatures and trade winds.
What are the current sea surface temperature conditions?
Currently, weak La Nina-like conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific, as per the IMD.
What impact do SST conditions have on the Indian monsoon?
Sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans significantly influence the Indian monsoon, affecting rainfall patterns and agricultural productivity.
