Al-Qaeda is intensifying efforts to expand its presence across India and the broader subcontinent through its regional arm, Al-Qaeda in the Sub-Continent (AQIS), by embracing a pan-Islamist ideology, encouraging Bangladesh-based terror groups to splinter into new cells, and forging tactical alliances across sectarian lines, according to security officials.

The AQIS Strategy Shift

AQIS was established in 2014 with a primary mandate to target India and its neighbours. Its early ambitions, however, were curtailed by the rapid rise of the Islamic State (IS), which dominated the global jihadist space and drew recruits away from Al-Qaeda's network. Security analysts now say the outfit has responded with a deliberate strategic recalibration.

The core of the new approach is pan-Islamism — a framework that deliberately avoids denouncing any particular sect or sub-sect within Islam, positioning Al-Qaeda as an ideologically inclusive force. This stands in sharp contrast to the Islamic State's strategy of targeting rival factions, which officials say ultimately hastened its decline as a dominant force.

'Al-Qaeda took a cue from the Islamic State, which committed the mistake of declaring war on every local sect and sub-sect. This shortened the Islamic State's lifespan as a dominant force and led to its gradual decline in several parts of the world,' a security official said.

The Africa Model and What It Means for India

Officials say Al-Qaeda is now attempting to replicate in the subcontinent what it achieved in Africa — where the organisation avoided declaring war on local sects and instead cultivated relationships with regional groups, significantly strengthening its network.

'In the sub-continent, Al-Qaeda wants to conduct the Africa experiment,' an official said, warning that the approach is 'dangerous.' By acting as an ideological mentor rather than a direct operational commander, Al-Qaeda gains influence while keeping its own hands relatively clean.

Officials noted that AQIS was itself formed by merging smaller jihadi groups from Bangladesh, Myanmar, and India. These groups struggled to grow partly due to competition from the Islamic State, but the pan-Islamist pivot is designed to overcome those constraints.

Bangladesh-Based Groups at the Centre

The Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) remains Al-Qaeda's most significant ally in the subcontinent. The JMB previously witnessed a factional split when a breakaway wing aligned with the Islamic State to form the Neo-JMB. Al-Qaeda has been encouraging the JMB to generate additional splinter outfits, including the Imam Mahmuder Kafila (IMK), which has reportedly directed its activities specifically at India.

According to an Intelligence Bureau official, Al-Qaeda is also pushing other Bangladesh-based groups — the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) — to similarly spawn new cells bound solely by Al-Qaeda's ideology.

'Groups such as the JMB, ABT and HuJI-B already have manpower and operational strength. Al-Qaeda, on the other hand, will continue to act as an ideological mentor to these groups. Further, the creation of these multiple splinter groups will confuse Indian agencies, while also giving the parent groups the deniability factor,' the Intelligence Bureau official said.

Shia Tactical Cooperation and Safe Havens

In a notable departure from its historical posture, Al-Qaeda is also reportedly pursuing tactical cooperation with Shia groups in the subcontinent. Officials say these groups provide logistical support and safe havens — a pragmatic calculation that prioritises operational survival over doctrinal purity.

The outfit is simultaneously working to establish a stronger base inside India. Its founder, the late Osama bin Laden, built Al-Qaeda's original doctrine around targeting the 'far enemy' — a reference to Western nations. The organisation now appears to be redirecting that energy toward the subcontinent, with India identified as the primary target, officials said.

The Islamic State's Cautionary Tale

The Islamic State's trajectory in India serves as both a comparison point and a strategic lesson for Al-Qaeda. The IS made significant inroads, radicalising more than 20 youths from Kerala alone and persuading them to travel to Afghanistan to join the group. Many of those recruits subsequently became disillusioned — reportedly citing discrimination and menial assignments within the organisation.

Al-Qaeda's more inclusive pitch is designed to avoid precisely that outcome. By presenting a broader ideological tent, the outfit hopes to build a more durable and expansive support base across the subcontinent. How Indian intelligence agencies counter this recalibrated threat will be closely watched in the months ahead.