New Delhi, April 18 (NationPress) As India prepares to observe Akshaya Tritiya this Sunday — a significant day for acquiring gold — current macroeconomic trends are boosting the metal's investment appeal alongside cultural traditions. Analysts predict prices could soar to Rs 1.85 lakh, as indicated by a recent report.

An assessment from Axis Direct highlights that gold is strategically positioned in the existing global landscape and could benefit regardless of whether the economy slips into stagflation or recovers amidst declining interest rates.

“The macroeconomic framework offers a structural advantage for gold, whether the global economy encounters stagflation or experiences relief from rate cuts,” stated the brokerage.

The report pointed out that high crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, could perpetuate inflation while hampering growth. This scenario typically heightens demand for bullion as a secure asset.

Analysts have set a COMEX gold target of $5,300–$5,500 per ounce in the short term.

In the domestic market, experts forecast that the price of yellow metal could increase to Rs 1.7 lakh-Rs 1.85 lakh per 10 grams, suggesting a possible rise of up to 15 percent from current values.

If this occurs, it would signify the fifth consecutive year of double-digit returns for gold.

Conversely, should crude oil prices decline and inflation stabilize, central banks — particularly the US Federal Reserve — are expected to initiate rate cuts.

Lower interest rates diminish the opportunity costs associated with holding non-yielding assets like gold, which typically supports price levels.

This outlook follows a tumultuous first quarter for gold in 2026.

COMEX prices peaked at $5,598 per ounce in late January but corrected sharply due to rising geopolitical tensions and a surge in crude oil prices from $60 to $115 per barrel, alongside inflation worries and ETF outflows. However, prices subsequently dropped to $4,098 earlier in March.

Gold has since made a recovery as crude prices softened following ceasefire negotiations, with analysts observing that the metal is establishing a strong foundation.

“After the intense challenges faced in Q1 2026, the core demand pillars, central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic hedging strategies remain robust,” the brokerage noted.

Moreover, in terms of returns over the past decade, gold has provided an impressive 18 percent compounded annual return during successive Akshaya Tritiya celebrations, surpassing the performance of the equity benchmark Nifty 50.

For example, an investment of Rs 100 in gold in 2016 would now be valued at approximately Rs 527, as compared to around Rs 307 for the Nifty 50.

Annual returns have been on the rise in recent years, escalating from 7 percent in 2021-22 to 18 percent, 22 percent, and 30 percent in the following years, culminating in a remarkable 61 percent gain in 2025-26.

On the demand front, Indian gold ETF inflows have surged from Rs 1,500 crore in 2022 to an estimated Rs 25,000–Rs 30,000 crore in 2025, indicating a shift from physical jewelry towards financial gold instruments.

At a sovereign level, analysts highlighted a significant change in global reserves.

Additionally, the report revealed that for the first time, the total value of gold held by central banks has exceeded their combined holdings of US Treasuries, with both estimated at around $4 trillion.

Central bank acquisitions, which surpassed 1,000 tonnes annually between 2022 and 2024, are expected to moderate to approximately 850 tonnes in 2026.

For potential buyers this Akshaya Tritiya, the report asserts that the investment rationale for gold remains compelling, no matter the direction of the global economy.

“Gold is an essential component of any investment portfolio,” the brokerage concluded.