Are India's Valuations Offering Better Value Compared to Chinese Equities?

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Are India's Valuations Offering Better Value Compared to Chinese Equities?

Synopsis

Discover how India's equity market is positioned as the largest underweight in Global Emerging Market portfolios, presenting a valuable opportunity compared to Chinese equities. This report delves into the factors driving India's potential recovery and highlights Indonesia's rising appeal among investors.

Key Takeaways

  • India is the largest underweight in GEM portfolios.
  • Attractive valuations compared to Chinese equities.
  • Expectations of significant earnings recovery in India.
  • Indonesia is emerging as a promising market.
  • Dividends in Asia have doubled over two decades.

New Delhi, Nov 20 (NationPress) India's market valuations present an attractive opportunity when compared to Chinese equities. Currently, India holds the title of being the largest underweight in Global Emerging Market (GEM) portfolios within the Asia region, with merely a quarter of the monitored funds exhibiting overweight positions, according to a report released on Thursday.

Despite the robust interest surrounding the region's AI supply chain—particularly in markets like Taiwan and South Korea—Asia's equity landscape is gearing up for a shift towards markets that provide broader value and clearer earnings visibility, with India emerging as a key player.

HSBC Global Research stated in its report, "India is the largest underweight in GEM portfolios; only 25% of the funds we analyze are overweight in India. Given the recent underperformance, we believe India's valuations present a better opportunity compared to Chinese equities."

The report indicates that Indian earnings are anticipated to recover significantly, bolstered by widening bank margins, falling interest rates, and increased consumer spending. Sectors driven by consumer demand, such as automobiles, are set to gain from reduced borrowing costs and possible GST adjustments.

Moreover, Indonesia is highlighted as another emerging market likely to attract investor interest.

Government policy support is on the rise, and monetary conditions are expected to become more lenient by 2026. The report suggests a potential earnings rebound in Indonesia, with consensus growth estimates improving from 7% in 2025 to 11% in 2026.

On the other hand, investor sentiment in mainland China has seen an upturn in 2025, resulting in a boost in valuation multiples.

However, further growth will rely on companies meeting their earnings expectations, currently predicted at 16% EPS growth in 2026, as indicated in the report.

A significant portion of this growth is dependent on revitalizing consumer spending, which remains a crucial topic but has yet to see substantial support from policy measures.

The report also points out the dividend potential in Asia.

Over the past two decades, dividends in this region have more than doubled, yet the payout ratios remain among the lowest worldwide.

HSBC's analysts remarked, "This indicates substantial room for improvement. Korea's government-led 'Value Up' initiative has encouraged companies to adopt more shareholder-friendly practices, while entities in China and Singapore have also begun increasing their distributions. Notably, Indonesia is leading the region in enhancing payout ratios," the report noted.

While AI continues to dominate discussions in global markets, investor exposure in Asia—particularly in Taiwan and Korea—is nearing capacity, with the average regional portfolio allocating approximately 10% to a single stock, TSMC.

This concentration risk, coupled with the cyclical nature of previous tech booms, is likely to steer investors toward more diversified regional themes in 2026.

HSBC maintains a positive outlook on Hong Kong, India, and Indonesia, while it holds underweight positions in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Thailand.

Point of View

I firmly believe that India's current market landscape offers compelling opportunities for investors. The underweight positioning in Global Emerging Market portfolios signifies a chance for growth, especially as earnings are poised to recover. The broader Asian market is evolving, and India is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this shift, making it essential for investors to consider a diversified approach moving forward.
NationPress
20/11/2025

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are Indian valuations considered attractive compared to Chinese equities?
Indian valuations are seen as attractive due to the country's current underweight position in Global Emerging Market portfolios and anticipated earnings recovery driven by improving economic conditions.
What factors are expected to support India's earnings recovery?
Factors supporting India's earnings recovery include expanding bank margins, easing interest rates, and stronger consumer spending.
What role does Indonesia play in the current investment landscape?
Indonesia is gaining traction among investors due to increased government support and favorable monetary conditions expected to foster earnings growth.
What are the implications of high dividend potential in Asia?
High dividend potential in Asia suggests room for companies to enhance shareholder returns, which may attract more investment in the region.
How is the AI market influencing investment strategies in Asia?
The AI market is influencing investment strategies by pushing investors toward diversified regional themes as exposure to key stocks like TSMC reaches capacity.
Nation Press