Market Forecast: Key Factors Affecting RBI MPC, CPI, Tariffs, and Global Economic Data Next Week
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Synopsis
The equity market outlook for next week will hinge on various domestic and global influences, including the RBI MPC decisions, India's CPI for March, industrial production figures, and updates on US tariffs. Investors should brace for significant economic data releases.
Key Takeaways
- RBI MPC decision on April 9 will be crucial.
- India's CPI and industrial production data due on April 11.
- Global market sentiments influenced by US tariff policies.
- Selling pressure seen in IT and Metal sectors.
- Support and resistance levels for Nifty to monitor.
Mumbai, April 6 (NationPress) The upcoming equity market perspective for next week will be influenced by multiple domestic and international elements, including the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (RBI MPC), India's CPI (March), data on industrial production, updates on US reciprocal tariffs, and various other global economic indicators.
On the domestic front, the announcement of the RBI MPC decision is set for April 9, which will shed light on the Reserve Bank's policy direction and the economic outlook for India.
Moreover, India's CPI (March) figures along with Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be unveiled on April 11.
Globally, the minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, US CPI data, and UK GDP data are expected to be published in the upcoming week.
Indian benchmark indices concluded the week significantly lower, ending a two-week winning streak as rising global trade tensions unsettled investor confidence. The Sensex decreased by 2.65 percent, closing at 75,364.69, while the Nifty fell by 2.61 percent, ending at 22,904.45.
Sector-wise, substantial selling was evident in the IT and Metal sectors, which were the worst performers, plunging by 9.15 percent and 7.46 percent, respectively. The FMCG sector was the only one to register gains, rising slightly by 0.45 percent, suggesting defensive buying amidst market fluctuations.
The sell-off was predominantly triggered by US President Donald Trump’s move to impose high reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including a 27 percent tax on select Indian products.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) became aggressive sellers, withdrawing around Rs 13,730 crore from the cash segment, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided some assistance with net inflows of about Rs 5,632 crore.
Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, remarked, "The Nifty 50 has dropped to a two-week low, burdened by growing concerns over a global trade war and recession, generating a wave of negative sentiment."
He added, "The critical support levels to monitor are 22,300 and 22,000. Conversely, 22,800 now represents a strong resistance. In this scenario, Nifty is becoming a sell-on-rise market, and traders should exercise caution and refrain from aggressive long positions until stability is restored."
