Islamabad, March 26 (NationPress) - By the year 2050, Pakistan is anticipated to see a significant rise in mortality rates, with an estimated increase of 51 deaths per 100,000 individuals as a result of escalating global temperatures driven by fossil fuel emissions. Low and middle-income nations are expected to account for approximately 90% of premature deaths linked to climate change, as reported by local media.

A recent analysis conducted by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago presents the first detailed projections of how rising temperatures could affect mortality rates, aiming to assist in adaptation planning. This study utilized highly localized data from various regions worldwide.

The findings suggest that lower-income countries may face a staggering number of casualties, with around 391,000 deaths per year compared to 39,000 deaths in wealthier nations, despite having similar population sizes. This stark contrast highlights the devastating impact of heatwaves on the Global South, as reported by the Pakistani daily Dawn.

Both Pakistan and Burkina Faso are expected to endure the harshest effects of climate change, with Pakistani cities predicted to be among the most affected.

While affluent cities such as Phoenix and Madrid are projected to experience annual fatalities of 600 and 525 respectively, Faisalabad, Pakistan, is expected to suffer an additional loss of 9,400 lives each year due to rising temperatures, according to the study.

Eight major cities in Pakistan, including Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Lahore, Peshawar, Hyderabad, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad, rank among the top 15 urban areas in low and middle-income countries likely to witness an uptick in mortality rates by 2050 compared to averages from 2001-2010, as reported by Dawn.

This projection indicates that heat-related fatalities in Pakistan may surpass current rates associated with tuberculosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and stroke.

According to the study, when examining 301 cities worldwide anticipated to see an increase in temperature-related deaths by 2050, over 100,000 additional lives could be lost annually, with approximately one-third of those fatalities occurring in Pakistani cities.

Reports indicate that these deaths are likely to happen due to the lack of adaptation financing available to Pakistani cities in order to deal with rising temperatures.

Mariam Saleh Khan, a climate scientist from the Islamabad-based think tank Weather and Climate Services, noted that several scientific studies predict that the humid heat in certain regions of Pakistan could exceed human survivability limits, adversely affecting productivity and overall health.

“Given that Pakistan is one of the fastest urbanizing nations in South Asia, the current projections from the Climate Impact Lab should be viewed as conservative estimates,” she stated, highlighting Pakistan's insufficient preparations for the impending crisis.

“Following the heatwaves of 2022, the government did initiate efforts such as developing a few heat action plans at local and provincial levels, but these measures lack robust scientific foundations; they are essentially basic heat advisories,” she criticized, expressing concerns about Pakistan's National Adaptation Plan 2023.