RBI Net Forex Purchase Surges to $7.41 Billion in February
Synopsis
The RBI made a net forex purchase of $7.41 billion in February 2026 — its second straight month of net dollar buying — even as the rupee briefly gained 1% before crashing to an all-time low of 95.21 in March. The central bank's aggressive forex strategy and India's 6.9% GDP growth projection reveal a high-stakes balancing act amid global turmoil.
Key Takeaways
RBI net forex purchase in February 2026 stood at $7.41 billion , marking the second consecutive month of net dollar buying.
Gross forex purchases totalled $21.4 billion against gross sales of $13.99 billion during the month; in January 2026 , net purchases were $2.5 billion .
The Indian rupee gained 1 per cent in February — its first monthly rise in 10 months — but crashed to an all-time low of 95.21 in late March 2026 due to the Middle East conflict .
The RBI's net outstanding forward dollar sales surged to $77.67 billion by end- February 2026 , up from $67.77 billion in January .
The RBI projects India's real GDP growth at 6.9 per cent for 2026-27 , backed by private consumption and fixed investment.
The IMF revised its global growth forecast marginally upward to 3.3 per cent for 2026 , though the RBI warns the resilience is concentrated in AI infrastructure investment in North America and parts of Asia .
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) made a net foreign exchange purchase of $7.41 billion in February 2026, according to data released in the central bank's monthly bulletin on Thursday, April 23. This marked the second consecutive month of net dollar purchases by the RBI, signalling an active intervention strategy to stabilise the Indian rupee amid global economic turbulence.
RBI's Forex Intervention: The Numbers in Detail
During February 2026, the RBI purchased a gross total of $21.4 billion while selling $13.99 billion, resulting in the net purchase figure of $7.41 billion. This was a significant jump compared to January 2026, when the central bank had recorded a net purchase of just $2.5 billion.
The RBI's net outstanding forward dollar sales stood at $77.67 billion as of the end of February, rising sharply from $67.77 billion recorded at the close of January 2026. This escalation in forward positions reflects the central bank's intensified efforts to manage currency volatility through both spot and derivative markets.
Rupee's Brief Recovery and Subsequent Plunge
The Indian rupee appreciated 1 per cent against the US dollar in February 2026, recording its first monthly gain in 10 months. The recovery was largely driven by optimism surrounding the announcement of a trade deal between India and the United States.
However, the recovery proved short-lived. The escalation of the Middle East conflict severely disrupted global energy markets, triggering record foreign portfolio outflows from Indian capital markets. The rupee subsequently plunged to an all-time low of 95.21 in late March 2026, before the RBI stepped in with targeted measures to curb speculative trading. The currency has since stabilised, currently trading at approximately 93.50 per US dollar.
India's GDP Outlook and Domestic Economic Resilience
Despite external headwinds, the RBI has projected India's real GDP growth at 6.9 per cent for 2026-27. The bulletin attributes this projection to sustained domestic economic resilience, underpinned by robust private consumption and strong fixed investment.
However, the bulletin also flags significant downside risks. It notes that baseline assumptions remain subject to uncertainties stemming from the evolving global trade landscape and heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia. These risks could weigh on export demand and investor sentiment in the near term.
Global Economic Backdrop: Selective Resilience, Concentrated Risks
Global economic activity remained broadly resilient through H2:2025 and into early 2026, prompting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to marginally revise its global growth forecast upward to 3.3 per cent for 2026 in its January 2026 World Economic Outlook update.
The RBI bulletin, however, cautions that this resilience is not broad-based. It is concentrated in technology-related investment, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, and is largely limited to North America and select parts of Asia, rather than reflecting a widespread demand recovery across emerging and developing economies.
West Asia Conflict: Energy Disruption and Trade Risks
Persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing West Asia conflict, continue to cloud the global economic outlook. The bulletin highlights that attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf have disrupted global energy supply chains. The selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted trade flows in the Gulf region.
The RBI warns that wider fiscal imbalances in major economies could push up long-term interest rates and tighten global financial conditions, with adverse spillover effects for emerging market economies (EMEs), including India, through capital outflows and currency depreciation pressures.
As global uncertainty persists, markets and policymakers will closely watch the RBI's next monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting for signals on interest rate direction and further forex intervention strategy. The trajectory of the rupee, energy prices, and India-US trade deal implementation will remain key factors shaping India's macroeconomic stability in the months ahead.
Point of View
Celebrated as a sign of India-US trade optimism, was almost immediately erased by the West Asia conflict, exposing how structurally vulnerable the currency remains to external shocks. What is striking is the scale of forward dollar sales — $77.67 billion — which signals that the RBI is not merely reacting but actively trying to anchor expectations. India's 6.9% GDP growth projection looks credible on paper, but the confluence of a weakened rupee, record FPI outflows, and a partially closed Strait of Hormuz means the ground reality may be far more fragile than the headline numbers suggest.
NationPress
5 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did the RBI purchase in the forex market in February 2026?
The RBI made a net forex purchase of $7.41 billion in February 2026. Gross purchases stood at $21.4 billion while gross sales were $13.99 billion during the same period.
Why did the Indian rupee fall to an all-time low in March 2026?
The Indian rupee fell to an all-time low of 95.21 in late March 2026 primarily due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which disrupted global energy markets and triggered record foreign portfolio outflows from Indian capital markets. The RBI subsequently intervened to stabilise the currency.
What is the RBI's GDP growth forecast for India in 2026-27?
The RBI has projected India's real GDP growth at 6.9 per cent for 2026-27. This projection is supported by strong private consumption and robust fixed investment, though it is subject to risks from global trade uncertainty and West Asia tensions.
What are the RBI's net outstanding forward dollar sales as of February 2026?
The RBI's net outstanding forward dollar sales stood at $77.67 billion as of the end of February 2026, up from $67.77 billion at the end of January 2026. This sharp increase reflects intensified central bank intervention in derivative markets.
How is the West Asia conflict affecting India's economy?
The West Asia conflict has disrupted global energy supply through attacks on Gulf infrastructure and the selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting India's energy import costs and investor sentiment. The RBI bulletin warns this has significantly worsened the near-term outlook for global trade and growth, with adverse spillover effects for emerging market economies like India.
