New Delhi, March 1 (NationPress) Brent crude oil prices may surge beyond $90 per barrel due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel amid a wider regional conflict, according to a report released on Sunday.

The analysis from JM Financial Institutional Securities indicates that crude prices have already risen to approximately $72.8 per barrel, and a limited Iranian retaliation could push prices up by an additional $5–10 per barrel. More severe damage to Iranian oil infrastructure might raise prices by $10–12 per barrel.

Each $1 increase in crude oil prices adds around $2 billion to India's annual import costs, thereby straining the trade balance, the report elaborated.

Notably, about 20% of worldwide oil transportation occurs through the Strait of Hormuz, with over 40% of India's crude imports relying on this vital route.

In the near future, the markets are expected to shift focus from earnings to oil-driven strategies, the report suggests.

While upstream energy and defense sectors may experience relative support, industries sensitive to oil prices, such as OMCs, paints, tires, aviation, and chemicals, could face margin pressures, as projected by the brokerage. Under the prevailing escalation scenario, crude oil remains a crucial macroeconomic factor influencing Indian equities.

The report notes, "The INR is likely to experience a short-term depreciation bias, potentially prompting RBI intervention through foreign exchange reserves. The connection is clear: rising crude oil prices elevate inflation risks; increased inflation drives bond yields higher; higher yields compress equity multiples," the brokerage elucidated on the relationship between crude prices and equity markets.

Ongoing tensions may raise logistics and marine insurance expenses, disrupt shipping routes in the Gulf, and further stress the trade balance.

Upstream oil producers like ONGC and Oil India could benefit from improved realizations, while defense firms such as HAL and BEL might witness positive sentiment, the report added.

Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several high-ranking IRGC, intelligence, and national security officials.

On Saturday, the United States and Israel initiated synchronized strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and command centers. In retaliation, Iran has launched missile and drone assaults on U.S. bases throughout the Middle East.