US and Israel's Offensive on Iran Likely to Spike Global Oil Prices
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
New Delhi, Feb 28 (NationPress) The global oil market is poised for an increase in prices following the recent extensive military operations initiated by the US and Israel against Iran. This escalation has effectively transformed the Strait of Hormuz into a battleground, raising concerns over potential disruptions in crude oil exports from the Middle East.
Over 20% of the world’s oil supply is transported via the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. With the US military launching heavy missile strikes and President Donald Trump declaring the destruction of Iran's navy a primary goal, the flow of oil from this crucial region is at significant risk.
Experts predict a rise in oil prices driven by a “war premium”, which must be considered due to the scale of the coordinated attack by the US and Israel on Iran—an evident escalation in geopolitical tensions. Iran is anticipated to respond with counter-attacks in the region.
As a consequence, oil prices concluded trading up by 2% last Friday, with Brent crude reaching $72.48 per barrel, largely influenced by the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, along with worries over possible supply disruptions.
According to Barclays Bank, Brent crude could ascend to approximately $80 per barrel if there are significant supply interruptions, as the market currently reflects a risk premium due to these geopolitical tensions, although immediate supply disruptions are not guaranteed.
On a different note, India has bolstered its energy security by diversifying oil imports from nations outside the Gulf region in recent years. A senior official confirmed that a substantial portion of India's supplies no longer traverses the Strait of Hormuz.
India’s oil marketing firms—Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum—have secured several weeks’ worth of supplies and continue to receive energy from various routes.
With India relying on imports for around 85% of its crude oil needs, any surge in oil prices will elevate the oil import bill and contribute to inflation, thereby impacting economic growth.
Nevertheless, India has strategically diversified its oil sources, notably increasing imports from regions such as the US and Africa, while also enhancing resilience through strategic crude reserves. The country has oil storage capabilities in Pudur (2.25 million metric tonnes), Visakhapatnam (1.33 million metric tonnes), and Mangalore (1.5 million metric tonnes). An additional strategic reserve facility is currently under construction at Chandikhol, located along the coast.
These strategic reserves can be tapped during emergencies and provide a buffer for national oil companies in times of soaring global prices.