Gold and silver are expected to stay supported over the medium to long term despite heightened volatility in 2026, with price corrections presenting accumulation opportunities for investors, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services released on 5 November 2026. The findings come even as the yellow metal's earlier rally has paused after a historic run.

What Is Driving the Volatility

Unlike the largely one-directional rally seen in 2025, precious metals have experienced sharper price swings in 2026, the report noted. The turbulence has been driven by shifting expectations around US interest rates, persistent inflation, elevated bond yields, and ongoing geopolitical developments. Gold surged to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January 2026 before correcting below $4,000 and subsequently recovering. Silver similarly rallied above $100 per ounce before undergoing an even steeper pullback.

Price Targets and Accumulation Zones

The report recommends a buy-on-dips strategy for gold, identifying an accumulation zone of $3,800–$3,900 per ounce internationally. The short-term target is set at $4,200, while the medium-term target ranges from $4,500 to $4,700. For domestic investors, assuming a USD/INR rate of 96, the preferred accumulation zone is cited at ₹1,35,000 per 10 grams, with a short-term target of ₹1,48,000 and a medium-term target of ₹1,60,000–₹1,68,000.

Investment Demand Remains Resilient

Despite elevated price levels, investment demand has held firm. Global gold ETF holdings rose by approximately 187 tonnes during August and September 2026, reaching a record 4,256 tonnes, while third-quarter inflows touched a record $31 billion. In India, gold ETF inflows surged 71% month-on-month to ₹44.5 billion in September 2026, while silver ETFs attracted ₹19.7 billion in inflows during the same period.

What Experts Say

Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said gold's near-term trajectory will remain sensitive to the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, inflation trends, movements in the US dollar, and real bond yields. He added that central-bank diversification, sustained investment demand, and fiscal uncertainties continue to provide structural support to gold over the longer term.

Festive Season and Domestic Demand

Historical trends indicate that festive demand has a stronger correlation with domestic premiums, imports, and physical buying volumes than with international price movements. Diwali and Dhanteras remain among India's most culturally significant occasions for precious-metal purchases, bolstered by the wedding season. Data also suggests that gold has generally delivered stronger returns during the 30 days preceding Diwali compared with the following 30-day period.

With structural tailwinds intact and tactical entry points now in view, the medium-term outlook for precious metals in India appears constructive, though global macro uncertainty could extend the period of elevated volatility.