Gold, silver rise on MCX as Fed rate hike odds drop below 20%
Synopsis
Gold and silver futures climbed on MCX Monday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Bangkok remarks slashed implied October rate-hike odds below 20% — but hotter-than-expected US producer price data keeps a December move alive, setting up the October 27-28 FOMC meeting as the next market-moving flashpoint.
Key Takeaways
MCX gold futures (December) rose ₹461 to ₹1,48,379 per 10 grams in early trade on 19 October .
MCX silver futures (December) gained ₹826 to ₹2,12,013 per kg , outperforming gold on an intraday basis.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks in Bangkok cut implied probability of an October rate hike below 20 per cent .
Hot US producer price data — the sharpest monthly rise in four and a half years — keeps a December rate move in play.
COMEX gold edged toward $4,200 (+0.50%) and COMEX silver moved toward $57.80 (+0.89%).
A firmer rupee is partially capping domestic price gains despite the international rally.
Gold and silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) climbed in early trade on Monday, 19 October, buoyed by firm global cues and easing fears of an imminent US Federal Reserve rate hike. The move tracked gains on COMEX, where both metals pushed higher as remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok pulled the implied probability of an October rate increase below 20 per cent.
MCX Levels: Gold and Silver in Early Trade
MCX gold futures (December contract) were trading at ₹1,48,379 per 10 grams, up ₹461 or 0.31 per cent from the previous close of ₹1,47,918. The yellow metal touched an intraday high of ₹1,48,499, a jump of 0.4 per cent or ₹581, before settling back. Intraday support held near ₹1,48,120.
MCX silver futures (December contract) were trading at ₹2,12,013 per kg, up ₹826 or 0.39 per cent from the prior close of ₹2,11,187. Silver outpaced gold intraday, hitting a high of ₹2,12,750 — a surge of 0.74 per cent or ₹1,563. Both contracts opened higher, with gold at ₹1,48,397 and silver at ₹2,12,319.
Fed Chair Remarks and the Rate-Hike Outlook
According to commodity market experts, Friday's session proved pivotal: remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during an event in Bangkok eased immediate rate-hike concerns and pushed implied probability of an October increase below 20 per cent. However, analysts cautioned that hotter inflation readings — including the sharpest monthly rise in producer prices in four and a half years — keep a December rate move firmly in play. The next critical test is the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.
Global Benchmarks: COMEX Gold and Silver
COMEX gold opened steady near $4,185 and edged toward $4,200, up 0.50 per cent, reclaiming that psychological level. COMEX silver opened near $57.15 and moved toward $57.80, up 0.89 per cent, outperforming gold on the global platform. Experts noted that a firmer rupee is partially limiting the upside for domestic prices, reducing the benefit of the international recovery.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
For MCX gold, experts place immediate resistance at ₹1,48,600, followed by ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700. Downside support lies at ₹1,48,000, then ₹1,45,300–₹1,46,000, and deeper at ₹1,43,000–₹1,43,700.
For MCX silver, immediate resistance is seen at ₹2,14,000–₹2,15,000 — a zone that capped gains on Friday — followed by ₹2,19,000–₹2,20,000. 'Immediate support at ₹2,07,000–₹2,08,000, with next support at ₹2,00,000–₹2,02,000,' experts said. With the FOMC meeting approaching and inflation data still running hot, traders are expected to remain cautious in the sessions ahead.
Point of View
But sticky producer price inflation means the December FOMC is far from a foregone conclusion. Domestic traders face a structural squeeze: a firmer rupee dilutes the full benefit of any international upswing, limiting the upside for MCX prices even when COMEX runs. Until the October 27-28 meeting provides clarity, this looks like a relief bounce rather than a sustained breakout — and resistance at ₹1,50,000 for gold will be the real test of whether the market believes the rate-hike cycle is genuinely cooling.
NationPress
19 Oct 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold and silver prices rise on MCX today?
Gold and silver futures rose on MCX on 19 October 2026 primarily because remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok reduced the implied probability of a US rate hike at the October FOMC meeting to below 20 per cent. Firm global cues on COMEX also supported domestic prices.
What are the current MCX gold and silver prices?
MCX gold futures (December contract) were trading at ₹1,48,379 per 10 grams, up ₹461 or 0.31 per cent. MCX silver futures (December contract) were at ₹2,12,013 per kg, up ₹826 or 0.39 per cent, in early trade on 19 October.
Is a US Fed rate hike still possible in December 2026?
Yes, a December rate hike remains in play despite the easing of October expectations. Commodity market experts point to the sharpest monthly rise in US producer prices in four and a half years as evidence that inflationary pressure has not fully abated. The October 27-28 FOMC meeting will be the next key indicator.
What are the key support and resistance levels for MCX gold?
For MCX gold, immediate resistance is at ₹1,48,600, followed by ₹1,50,000–₹1,50,700. Downside support is at ₹1,48,000, then ₹1,45,300–₹1,46,000, and further at ₹1,43,000–₹1,43,700, according to commodity market experts.
Why is the rupee's strength affecting gold prices in India?
A firmer rupee reduces the domestic price benefit when international gold and silver prices rise, because imports become relatively cheaper in rupee terms. This partially caps MCX gains even when COMEX benchmarks are trading higher, experts noted.
