Will the Global HIV Market Surpass $32 Billion by 2033?
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Synopsis
The HIV market is on a path to significant growth, projected to reach over $32 billion by 2033. This expansion is driven by innovative therapies and changing treatment paradigms. Explore how these trends will shape the future of HIV treatment.
Key Takeaways
- The HIV market is set to grow significantly, reaching $32.1 billion by 2033.
- Long-acting injectable therapies are becoming more popular among patients.
- Innovative two-drug single tablet regimens are expected to reduce side effects.
- New treatments like lenacapavir show promise in preventing HIV infections.
- Cost may be a significant barrier to accessing these new therapies.
New Delhi, May 11 (NationPress) A recent analysis indicates that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) market across seven key markets is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9 percent, rising from $26.5 billion in 2023 to $32.1 billion by 2033.
The report from GlobalData, titled “Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): Seven-Market Drug Forecast,” highlights that the growth trajectory will be largely supported by the increased adoption of long-acting injectable therapies and the forthcoming introduction of innovative single tablet regimens (STRs).
“The pipeline analysis suggests a move away from 3-drug STRs towards 2-drug STRs, which are anticipated to offer fewer toxicities and side effects,” stated Anaelle Tannen, an Infectious Disease Analyst at GlobalData.
Currently, six products are in Phase III development, with expectations for their launch by 2033, including four two-drug STRs.
These therapies include Gilead Sciences’ once-daily combination of bictegravir and lenacapavir, Merck’s once-daily doravirine and islatravir, and Gilead’s once-weekly islatravir and lenacapavir, as well as a once-weekly regimen of GS-1720 and GS-4182 developed jointly by Gilead and Merck.
“At present, all STRs necessitate daily administration, highlighting the need for more convenient alternatives such as islatravir+lenacapavir and GS-1720+GS-4182,” Tannen added.
Other significant therapies in advanced stages of development include CytoDyn’s once-weekly leronlimab for patients with CCR5-type virus, and Gilead’s biannual injectable lenacapavir designated for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).
Long-acting injectable therapies are expected to capture substantial market share across the seven major markets, as they require less frequent dosing, enhancing convenience for patients.
“For instance, lenacapavir is anticipated to be administered subcutaneously biannually for PrEP, with ongoing clinical trials assessing its efficacy when given once a year. Preliminary data from a Phase I trial has demonstrated lenacapavir’s potential when administered intramuscularly once annually,” Tannen reported.
Subcutaneous lenacapavir has shown a 100 percent efficacy rate in preventing new HIV infections, establishing it as a vital new option for PrEP.
However, it is expected that subcutaneous lenacapavir may be pricier than daily oral PrEP, and key opinion leaders (KOLs) consulted by GlobalData have pointed out that this could pose a barrier to accessibility.
Point of View
It's essential to recognize the transformative potential of emerging HIV therapies. With a projected market growth driven by innovative treatments, we stand at a pivotal moment in addressing HIV challenges. This progress, however, must be coupled with efforts to ensure accessibility and affordability for all patients.
NationPress
09/06/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected growth rate of the HIV market?
The HIV market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9 percent.
What are long-acting injectable therapies?
Long-acting injectable therapies are treatments that require less frequent dosing, providing a more convenient option for patients.
What are the expected new treatments by 2033?
Six products are anticipated to launch by 2033, including innovative two-drug single tablet regimens.
Why is lenacapavir significant?
Lenacapavir has demonstrated 100 percent efficacy in preventing new HIV infections and is set to be a key tool in pre-exposure prophylaxis.
What barriers might lenacapavir face?
Lenacapavir may be more expensive than daily oral PrEP, which could limit patient access.
