Indian aviation hit: International traffic down 39% in April on West Asia crisis
Synopsis
India's aviation recovery just hit a wall. International traffic for Indian carriers crashed 39% year-on-year in April, load factors slumped to 75.5%, and even the once-resilient domestic segment shrank 3%. With Brent at $92, jet fuel up 65%, and the rupee at 95 to the dollar, the West Asia crisis is no longer a short-term blip — it is reshaping the sector's cost and demand curves.
Key Takeaways
International passenger traffic of Indian carriers fell around 39% year-on-year to about 1.8 million in April 2026 .
RPKs declined 33% YoY to 7.2 billion ; flight departures down 37% YoY.
International passenger load factor dropped to 75.5% , down 617 bps YoY.
Brent crude at ~ $92/bbl (+44% YoY); Singapore jet fuel at ~ $128/bbl (+65% YoY).
Rupee at ~ 95/USD ; domestic ATF at ~ ₹1.056 lakh/kl , up 18% YoY.
Domestic passenger traffic fell 3% YoY to 13.9 million , with capacity still being added.
India's aviation sector recovery remained under strain in April 2026, with international passenger traffic of domestic carriers falling around 39% year-on-year to roughly 1.8 million, as the ongoing West Asia crisis, elevated fuel costs, and a weaker rupee continued to squeeze profitability, according to a report released on Wednesday. The findings, part of the latest ‘Aviation Tracker' report by Equirus Securities, point to a sector still some distance from a full rebound.
International traffic under sustained pressure
International Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) for Indian carriers declined around 33% year-on-year to 7.2 billion in April, while flight departures fell about 37% year-on-year despite a marginal sequential uptick. Month-on-month, international passenger volumes slipped a further 1%.
Capacity rationalisation persisted, with Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs) down around 28% year-on-year. However, demand weakness outpaced capacity cuts, dragging the passenger load factor (PLF) to roughly 75.5% — down 617 basis points year-on-year and 735 basis points month-on-month.
“The data indicates that the adverse impact of the West Asia conflict continued through April, affecting both traffic volumes and network efficiency,” the report said.
Fuel and forex: a double squeeze
Fuel costs stayed elevated even after a sequential moderation. Brent crude averaged around $92 per barrel, up 44% year-on-year, while Singapore jet fuel stood at roughly $128 per barrel, up 65% year-on-year, the report noted.
The rupee remained significantly weaker at around 95 to the US dollar, an 11% year-on-year depreciation, inflating dollar-linked costs such as aircraft leases and maintenance. Domestically, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices stood at about ₹1.056 lakh per kilolitre, up 18% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month, with government intervention continuing to limit the pass-through of global fuel inflation.
Domestic segment also softens
The domestic story was no longer a clean offset. Domestic passenger traffic fell to around 13.9 million, down 3% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month. Capacity additions continued, with domestic ASKs rising about 3% year-on-year — pushing utilisation lower as supply outran demand.
What lies ahead
The West Asia crisis remains the key overhang. While carriers have undertaken capacity adjustments and route rationalisation, international operations continue to face pressure from disrupted travel patterns and weaker demand, delaying a broader recovery, the report said. A meaningful turnaround will likely hinge on geopolitical de-escalation, crude price relief, and a stabilising rupee.
Point of View
West-Asia-only problem. Domestic traffic shrinking 3% while ASKs grow 3% is a textbook utilisation squeeze — and it will hit yields before it hits headlines. The bigger structural worry is the trifecta of $92 Brent, $128 jet fuel, and a 95-to-the-dollar rupee converging on a sector with thin margins and dollar-linked leases. Capacity discipline alone will not fix this; without geopolitical de-escalation, expect carriers to lean harder on fares, which then risks denting the domestic demand that has so far held the sector up.
NationPress
5 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is India's aviation sector recovery slowing down?
India's aviation recovery has slowed primarily because of the ongoing West Asia crisis, which has disrupted international travel patterns and weakened demand. Elevated fuel prices and a sharp rupee depreciation against the US dollar have further squeezed airline profitability in April 2026.
How much did international passenger traffic fall for Indian carriers in April 2026?
International passenger traffic of Indian carriers fell around 39% year-on-year to roughly 1.8 million in April 2026, according to the Aviation Tracker report. Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) also dropped about 33% YoY to 7.2 billion.
What is the current price of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) in India?
Domestic ATF prices stood at around ₹1.056 lakh per kilolitre in April 2026, up 18% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month. Government intervention has limited the full pass-through of global fuel inflation to airlines.
How is the weaker rupee affecting Indian airlines?
The rupee weakened around 11% year-on-year to roughly 95 against the US dollar, inflating dollar-denominated costs such as aircraft leases, maintenance, and spares. This adds pressure on margins already strained by high fuel prices and weak international demand.
Is domestic air travel in India also under pressure?
Yes. Domestic passenger traffic declined about 3% year-on-year to 13.9 million in April 2026, even as capacity (ASKs) rose 3% YoY. The resulting lower utilisation indicates that softness is no longer limited to the international segment.
