Is India's Capex Landscape Signaling Optimism This Fiscal?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Strong capex from central and state governments.
- Revival in corporate capex, particularly in key sectors.
- Positive order book data indicating future growth.
- Investment-to-GDP ratio remains above pre-pandemic levels.
- Expectations of increased capex in oil and gas and steel sectors.
New Delhi, Nov 24 (NationPress) The capex landscape of India in the current fiscal year has shown significant signs of optimism, according to a report released on Monday. The capital expenditure (capex) from both the central and state governments has remained robust, thereby enhancing the overall investment climate.
One of the most positive developments is the resurgence of capex by Indian corporations.
Additionally, data from order books of a representative sample of capital goods companies—a crucial indicator for future capital spending—suggests a promising outlook for capex.
As noted by CareEdge Ratings in their report, "This momentum is anticipated to create beneficial spillover effects across various industries, thereby bolstering the broader capex cycle within the economy."
The report forecasts a rise in capex for sectors like oil and gas and steel in FY26.
Public sector investments have remained strong throughout this year, with the aggregate capex of the top 19 states experiencing impressive double-digit growth.
On the corporate front, the combined capex of 1,899 listed non-financial firms has surged by 11 percent, reaching Rs 9.4 lakh crore in FY25. The report highlights that the increase in investment announcements and completions recorded during the first half of FY26 (CMIE data) reflects a positive investment sentiment.
“While the Centre’s capex has been healthy, we've also observed an enhancement in the overall state capex during H1 FY26. Moreover, corporate capex is gaining traction, primarily driven by sectors such as Oil and Gas, Power, Telecom, and Auto,” stated Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings.
The order books of capital goods firms are demonstrating strong momentum, which gives us hope for a positive capex outlook, Sinha added. India’s investment-to-GDP ratio has averaged 30.3 percent over the past four years, compared to a pre-pandemic average of 28.6 percent (FY16-19).
However, this ratio has slightly decreased to approximately 29.9 percent in FY25, attributed to election-related constraints impacting the investment landscape in the first half of last year. The report indicates that this trend is expected to reverse in the current fiscal year, as evidenced by emerging signs of a capex revival.