India’s Merchandise Exports Expected to Increase 3.64% in Q4 FY25

Synopsis

India's merchandise exports are set to increase by 3.64% to $124.8 billion in Q4 FY25, according to the Export-Import Bank. The growth is attributed to strong agricultural performance and rising manufacturing activity, despite global economic challenges.

Key Takeaways

Merchandise exports projected at $124.8 billion.
3.64% growth compared to Q4 FY24.
Non-oil exports to rise by 11.34%.
Trade deficit narrowed to $21.94 billion.
Positive trends expected to continue into Q1 FY26.

New Delhi, Feb 15 (NationPress) India’s merchandise exports are anticipated to surge to $124.8 billion in the fourth quarter of the ongoing financial year (Q4 FY25) -- marking a 3.64 percent increase from the same quarter last year (Q4 FY24).

As per the projections from the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank), total merchandise exports are expected to reach $446.5 billion this fiscal year, indicating a 2.2 percent rise compared to FY24.

Non-oil exports are predicted to witness a more pronounced growth of 11.34 percent to $109.3 billion, while exports excluding oil, gems, and jewelry are estimated to increase by 10.1 percent to $98.5 billion.

Non-oil exports are expected to total $382 billion, while non-oil and non-gems and jewelry exports are projected to reach $350 billion, according to the report.

Exim Bank stated, 'The optimistic growth in India's exports could stem from robust agricultural yields, a rebound in manufacturing, and better demand from trading partners.'

Despite facing challenges such as trade policy uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and global economic fragmentation, the positive trend in exports is anticipated to persist into the first quarter of the subsequent financial year (Q1 FY26).

The recent forecasts, which suggest a steady recovery, are backed by vigorous manufacturing activities, resilient agricultural exports, and an uptick in global demand.

In the meantime, India's trade deficit reduced to $21.94 billion in December, down from $32.84 billion in November, as exports surged while imports decreased month-over-month.

Merchandise exports in December rose to $38.01 billion, compared to $32.11 billion in November, while imports fell to $59.95 billion from $64.95 billion in November.

However, on a year-over-year basis, the trade gap expanded during December compared to $18.76 billion in December 2023. Merchandise exports saw a 1 percent decline in December 2024 from $38.39 billion in the same month the previous year, while imports increased by 4.8 percent from $57.15 billion in December 2023.