Will South Korea's Exports Drop 3% in Q3 Due to U.S. Tariffs?

Seoul, Aug 4 (NationPress) South Korea's exports are anticipated to decrease by approximately 3 percent compared to last year in the third quarter. This decline is attributed to the United States' stringent tariff policies now influencing the global trade landscape, as reported by the state-run Export-Import Bank of Korea on Monday.

For the period spanning July to September, outbound shipments are forecasted to hit around US$167 billion, representing a 3 percent reduction from the same timeframe in the previous year, according to insights from the bank's overseas economic research institute, as reported by Yonhap news agency.

This prediction emerges amidst escalating economic uncertainty driven by tariffs enacted during U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, while the beneficial effects of earlier inventory orders seen in the first half are diminishing, according to the bank.

Recently, Seoul and Washington disclosed a long-awaited tariff agreement, wherein the U.S. will levy a 15 percent tariff on South Korean imports, a decrease from the initially proposed 25 percent, in return for South Korea's $350 billion investment in the U.S.

"The repercussions of U.S. tariffs are expected to become increasingly evident in the latter half of the year. Even though the two nations have reached a tariff agreement, potential future shifts in the trade environment could either alleviate or exacerbate the decline in exports," an official from the bank stated.

During the second quarter of 2025, exports reached $175.2 billion, marking a 2.1 percent rise compared to the same period last year and a 9.8 percent increase from the previous quarter, according to governmental data.

The state-run trade promotion agency announced on Monday that it has initiated a consulting program aimed at assisting small and medium-sized enterprises in developing trade strategies following the recent trade pact between Seoul and Washington.

Last week, South Korea finalized a trade agreement with the United States, leading to the U.S. imposing 15 percent tariffs on South Korean goods, down from the initially suggested 25 percent. The reciprocal tariffs took effect last Friday (U.S. time).

The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) stated that customs and trade specialists have established consulting desks at its headquarters in southern Seoul to aid small exporters in formulating business strategies under the new South Korea-U.S. trade arrangement.

With the reciprocal tariff rate now confirmed at 15 percent, it is crucial for exporters to create comprehensive countermeasures, remarked KOTRA President Kang Kyung-sung.

The agency further noted that its dedicated hotline, launched in February, has already provided 6,023 consulting sessions as of last Friday.

KOTRA also plans to offer on-site consulting programs to exporters in 12 major regions nationwide until September to enhance their readiness for tariff-related challenges.