Rising sugar prices across India are primarily the result of lower sugarcane production and reduced sugar recovery rates — not the diversion of cane juice for ethanol production — agriculture and sugar industry experts said on Saturday, 22 August. The clarification comes amid a widening public debate over affordability and supply of the commodity.

What Experts Said

Prof. Narendra Mohan Agrawal, former Director of the National Sugar Institute, Kanpur, said while the recent price rise may have caught the market off guard, it would be incorrect to pin the blame solely on ethanol diversion. 'The government annually assesses sugar production and ensures that sufficient quantities are available for domestic consumption before permitting diversion for ethanol production or exports,' he said.

According to Prof. Agrawal, India's annual sugar requirement stands at around 280 lakh tonnes. Only surplus sugar is channelled toward ethanol or exports. In the current year, sugar equivalent to approximately 31 lakh tonnes was diverted for ethanol, while roughly 7 lakh tonnes was exported. Despite these outflows, the country continues to maintain adequate buffer stocks.

'This year, India produced around 306 lakh tonnes of sugar and also had carry-over stocks from the previous year. Under normal conditions, the country maintains buffer stocks of 50 lakh tonnes or more to ensure supply stability. Therefore, it would not be appropriate to blame ethanol diversion alone for higher sugar prices,' he added.

The Role of Ethanol Blending

Prof. Agrawal described the ethanol blending programme as a game changer for the Indian sugar industry. Historically, when sugar production exceeded domestic demand, market prices would fall sharply, straining the finances of sugar mills and delaying payments to farmers. Exports were once the primary route for managing surplus, but fluctuating international prices and global competition often limited their effectiveness.

The ethanol programme, he argued, has introduced structural stability — simultaneously supporting industry economics, reducing petroleum imports, and promoting cleaner fuel alternatives. The government, he noted, regularly reviews production estimates and adjusts permissible ethanol diversion and export quotas accordingly.

Regional Crop Cycles and Recovery Rates

Dr Hari Om, Professor-cum-Junior Scientist at Bihar Agricultural University (BAU), Sabour, linked the current price pressure to a decline in quality sugarcane production and regional variations in harvesting cycles.

He noted that states such as Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu record higher sugar recovery rates because sugarcane remains in the field for longer durations. Maharashtra's recovery rates stand at around 13–14%, among the highest in India, as farmers there typically plant in October–November and allow the crop to mature for 13 to 14 months. In Tamil Nadu, sugarcane planted during July–August has a crop duration of up to 18 months, contributing to some of the country's highest per-hectare productivity levels.

In contrast, northern Indian farmers generally sow sugarcane in April–May and harvest after roughly 10 to 11 months — a shorter cycle that yields lower sugar accumulation. North India is currently in a lean crushing season, Dr Hari Om said, but prices are expected to ease as the main harvesting and crushing season gets underway and market supplies improve.

Recommendations for Northern Farmers

Dr Hari Om suggested that farmers in northern India could meaningfully improve cane quality by shifting to October–November planting after the paddy harvest and adopting intercropping practices with wheat, mustard, lentils, gram, and vegetables. Such agronomic shifts, he said, could enhance both recovery rates and overall farm income. This comes amid broader government efforts to modernise sugarcane cultivation and reduce regional yield disparities.