Will India’s Sugar Season Conclude with 52 Lakh Tonnes of Buffer Stock?

New Delhi, May 16 (NationPress) India’s 2024–25 sugar season is expected to wrap up with a net sugar output of around 261 to 262 lakh tonnes, leaving a healthy buffer stock of 52 lakh tonnes to satisfy domestic needs, as reported by the Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) on Friday.

The forecast includes 257.44 lakh tonnes of sugar that has been produced up to mid-May this season, along with an estimated 4 to 5 lakh tonnes expected from the special crushing season in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, as detailed in the ISMA statement.

“The season began with an opening stock of 80 lakh tonnes. Given the anticipated domestic consumption of 280 lakh tonnes and export projections of up to 9 lakh tonnes, the expected closing stock will be around 52 to 53 lakh tonnes. This indicates a solid buffer, ensuring the nation possesses sufficient sugar to fulfill its domestic requirements,” ISMA highlighted.

Approximately 27 lakh tonnes of sugar has been allocated for ethanol production up to April 30, 2025, during the current season, with an additional 6 to 7 lakh tonnes expected to be diverted in the remaining season, ISMA added.

As of May 15, 2025, sugar production for the ongoing 2024-25 season has reached 257.44 lakh tonnes, with two sugar factories still operational across the nation. These facilities are located in Tamil Nadu, where the primary crushing season continues.

To boost production, several factories in South Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are anticipated to resume operations during the special crushing season, typically occurring from June/July through September.

Historically, the special season in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu contributes about 4 to 5 lakh tonnes of sugar for the current season.

The industry body also noted that the 2025–26 sugar season is looking promising, driven by several favorable developments in key sugar-producing regions.

In the southern states, particularly Maharashtra and Karnataka, sugarcane planting has shown remarkable growth, thanks to a beneficial southwest monsoon in 2024. With robust cane availability, the stage is set for an on-time start to the crushing season in October 2025.

In the northern region, including Uttar Pradesh, varietal replacement initiatives are anticipated to yield substantial benefits, resulting in higher cane yields and enhanced sugar recovery rates.

Adding to this optimistic outlook are climate forecasts from both the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet, which suggest a normal southwest monsoon in 2025.

This is advantageous for crop health and production, bolstering confidence in a robust and fruitful sugar season ahead, ISMA stated.