Is Jamaat-e-Islami's Strategy Enough to Secure Power in Bangladesh?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- The Jamaat-e-Islami targets 163 constituencies for potential victory.
- Internal surveys show promising results, especially in urban areas like Dhaka.
- Increased spending is evident in strongholds, supported by the caretaker government.
- The party aims to attract poor voters through targeted initiatives.
- Voters should be cautious about the Jamaat's long-term agenda.
New Delhi, Jan 22 (NationPress) The Jamaat-e-Islami is making a concerted effort to achieve a significant victory in the upcoming Bangladesh elections scheduled for February. The party has formulated distinct strategies for both urban and rural settings, specifically targeting 163 constituencies where internal assessments indicate a favorable outcome for them.
Currently, both the Jamaat and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are contesting the elections independently, having previously collaborated in governance and elections.
In a strategic move, the Jamaat has withdrawn its members from around 130 constituencies deemed unwinnable, reallocating them to the 163 districts where they have better prospects, as per official statements.
The party is concentrating its efforts on Dhaka and its surrounding areas, with a focus on at least 20 constituencies. Internal surveys have shown promising results for the Jamaat in these regions, leading to a significant increase in their cadre strength.
Financially, the Jamaat has ramped up expenditures in its strongholds. The party has benefited from controlling the caretaker government led by Muhammad Yunus, established after the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. Under Yunus, the Jamaat has assumed full authority over decision-making processes, including foreign policy, which has notably shifted towards Pakistan rather than India.
This power dynamic has facilitated increased spending for the Jamaat, with allocations of at least 100 crore BDT in constituencies where they believe they can secure victories. Even in areas where they already have a stronghold, the Jamaat is investing heavily to solidify its position.
Additionally, the Jamaat has launched a data collection initiative to gather mobile numbers and identify impoverished voters, aiming to win their support through various incentives.
The women's wing of the Jamaat has been particularly active in urban centers, conducting door-to-door surveys through its student organization, the Bangladesh Islami Chhatri Sangstha (BICS), along with the Islamic Chattra Shibir (ICS), which maintains dominance in almost all universities across the country.
Based on internal evaluations, the Jamaat believes it can secure at least 205 seats in the 350-member Jatiya Sangsad, Bangladesh's parliament, with 50 reserved for women.
Just a month ago, few anticipated that the Jamaat would surpass the BNP, which is now grappling with internal conflicts that have weakened its hold on nearly 90 seats.
An official from the Intelligence Bureau has indicated a mutual understanding between the Jamaat and Muhammad Yunus, with the Jamaat promising Yunus the presidency in the event of a win.
For India, a Jamaat victory poses a troubling scenario, as it would likely lead to a government aligned with Pakistan, raising internal security concerns for India. The Jamaat has historically conspired with the ISI to merge West Bengal with Bangladesh, and a victory could reignite these ambitions, potentially inciting communal unrest.
Analysts of Bangladesh politics suggest that the Jamaat's pre-election strategy is intriguing. The party is currently refraining from advocating a radical agenda, recognizing that the majority of voters are opposed to being governed by Sharia law. However, should they gain power, they are expected to pursue their agenda vigorously. Thus, voters must exercise caution in their electoral choices, as per expert opinions.