Japan's population drops below 120 million for first time in 42 years
Synopsis
Japan's national population has crossed a grim threshold — falling below 120 million for the first time since 1983, with the steepest single-year drop on record. With children now just 10.8% of the population and only Tokyo growing, the country's self-declared 2030 deadline to reverse the trend looks increasingly difficult to meet.
Key Takeaways
Japan's population of nationals fell to 119,736,483 as of 1 January 2025 — below 120 million for the first time in 42 years .
The year-on-year decline of 917,000 is the largest single-year drop since records began in 1968 .
Only Tokyo , Chiba , and Osaka recorded overall population growth; Tokyo was the sole prefecture where the Japanese national count rose.
Foreign residents reached a record 4,031,159 — the highest since the ministry began tracking in 2013 .
Japan's child population (under 15) dropped to 13.29 million , just 10.8% of total population — a record low stretching back to 1950 .
The Japanese government has declared through 2030 a 'final opportunity' to reverse the demographic decline.
Japan's population of nationals fell to 119,736,483 as of 1 January 2025 — slipping below the 120 million mark for the first time in 42 years, according to data released Wednesday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. The decline of 917,000 people year-on-year is the steepest single-year drop since comparable records began in 1968.
Key Demographic Shifts
Of Japan's 47 prefectures, only Tokyo recorded an increase in the number of Japanese nationals — a marginal rise of 0.09 per cent. Every other prefecture posted a decline, underscoring how concentrated demographic vitality has become in the capital region.
The number of foreign residents, meanwhile, climbed by 354,000 to a record 4,031,159 — the highest count since the ministry began tracking the figure in 2013. Japan's total population, including foreign nationals, stood at 123,767,642, down roughly 563,000 from the prior year. Population growth was recorded only in Tokyo, Chiba, and Osaka prefectures.
Child Population at Historic Low
The demographic stress is sharpest at the youngest end of the age spectrum. Government data released in May showed Japan's child population had fallen to an estimated 13.29 million as of 1 April — a drop of 350,000 from the previous year and a new record low, marking the 45th consecutive year of decline.
Children aged below 15 years now constitute just 10.8 per cent of the total population, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year — the lowest share since comparable data became available in 1950.
Government Response and the 2030 Deadline
Japan's government has for years deployed financial incentives for child-rearing families, yet the population decline has persisted for 45 years. Authorities have now declared the period through 2030 a 'final opportunity to reverse the trend' — framing the next five years as a demographic make-or-break window.
Notably, the surge in foreign residents — now at a record high — has partially cushioned the overall population slide, but has not offset the structural decline in the native-born population, which drives long-term labour force and pension system projections.
What Comes Next
The total population figures are derived from national census-based estimates, updated every five years. Demographers and policymakers will be watching whether immigration policy is accelerated beyond current levels, and whether the government's child-support measures — expanded in recent budgets — begin to register in birth-rate data before the self-imposed 2030 deadline arrives.
Point of View
Yet policymakers have been reluctant to frame immigration as a structural solution rather than a stopgap. The 2030 'final opportunity' framing is politically bold but arithmetically fragile: birth-rate policy changes take 15-20 years to show up in the labour force. If Tokyo remains the only prefecture adding Japanese nationals, the regional economic imbalance will compound the demographic one.
NationPress
29 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
How far has Japan's population fallen and when was it last this low?
Japan's population of nationals stood at 119,736,483 as of 1 January 2025, falling below 120 million for the first time in 42 years. The last time the figure was this low was in 1983.
Why is Japan's population declining so sharply?
Japan has recorded falling birth rates for 45 consecutive years, with children now making up just 10.8% of the total population — the lowest share since 1950. Despite government financial incentives for families raising children, the structural decline has not reversed.
What is Japan's 2030 population target?
The Japanese government has declared the period through 2030 a 'final opportunity to reverse the trend' of declining birth rates, though no specific population target has been stated. The framing signals urgency around child-support and family policy reforms.
How many foreign residents does Japan have, and does that change the picture?
Foreign residents in Japan reached a record 4,031,159 — up 354,000 in a year and the highest count since tracking began in 2013. While this partially offsets the decline in Japanese nationals, the total population still fell by approximately 563,000.
Which parts of Japan are still growing?
Overall population growth was recorded only in Tokyo, Chiba, and Osaka prefectures. Tokyo was the only prefecture where the count of Japanese nationals specifically increased, by 0.09 per cent.
