Unlikely Prospects for a Sustainable Resolution in the Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict: Analysis
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
Canberra, March 7 (NationPress) The persistent strife between Pakistan and Afghanistan signifies a significant decline in their diplomatic relations, a trend that has intensified since the Taliban regained authority in August 2021. A report indicates that Islamabad has previously executed substantial airstrikes targeting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants within Afghanistan, particularly noted in December 2024.
On February 26, Afghan forces conducted extensive offensives on numerous Pakistani border installations, which the Afghan administration claims were retaliatory actions against Pakistan's airstrikes on TTP strongholds in early February. In response, Islamabad retaliated with bombings across 22 urban and military sites in Kabul, Kandahar, Paktia, Nangarhar, Khost, and Paktika provinces, as reported by the Australian think tank Asialink.
According to Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, a spokesperson for the Pakistani military, the report states that 274 Taliban fighters have been killed and over 400 injured, with 73 Afghan posts along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border being destroyed and 18 overtaken. Pakistan's Defence Minister Khwaja Asif described the escalating conflict as having transformed into an 'open war.'
The report mentions that the last significant military engagement between these nations took place in October 2025, ending in a ceasefire facilitated by Turkey and Qatar. Despite following negotiations, a durable peace agreement has yet to be established.
In the recent conflicts, Pakistan's air force targeted Taliban military sites in Kabul, underlining Islamabad's unwavering stance regarding the Taliban's refusal to remove the TTP from its territory.
The report adds that Pakistan possesses additional leverage beyond its military capabilities. It could tighten access across its lengthy 2600-kilometer border. The key border crossings at Torkham and Chaman contribute approximately 40 percent of Afghanistan's customs revenue. By increasing tariffs beyond the current 10 percent and implementing stricter import limitations, Pakistan would economically pressure the Taliban to cease support for the TTP.
Furthermore, Pakistan might escalate the number of Afghan refugees it forcibly repatriates, exacerbating Afghanistan's economic difficulties. In 2025 alone, 930,000 Afghan nationals were returned, with 67 percent of those being forcibly repatriated.
The report emphasizes the apparent lack of initiative from third-party nations to foster peace discussions between the two countries.
While Saudi Arabia and Qatar have offered to mediate a ceasefire, their attention is currently diverted by their domestic concerns, particularly due to Iranian reprisals in its conflict with Israel and the US. Consequently, as seen in prior mediation attempts in 2025, the prospect of achieving a lasting solution to the recent hostilities remains exceedingly slim.