Is Pakistan Facing a 21 Percent Water Crisis This Kharif Season Due to India's Water Blockade?

Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Pakistan anticipates a 21 percent water shortage during the Kharif season.
- The Indus River System Authority has raised alarms following India's water blockade.
- Water supply reduction could severely impact agricultural output.
- Experts warn of potential food security crises.
- IRSA is implementing strategies to manage reduced water availability.
Islamabad, May 6 (NationPress) The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) of Pakistan has issued a critical alert regarding a projected 21 percent decrease in water availability throughout the Kharif season, following India's blockade of water supplies. As a result of this blockade, the inflow of water into the Chenab River has significantly diminished. This advisory was released after an important meeting of the IRSA's Advisory Committee (IAC), where they approved the anticipated water availability criteria for the remaining Kharif season.
During the assembly, grave concerns were voiced about the abrupt drop in water levels within the Chenab River. Participants attributed this reduction to the halted water supply from India, which followed New Delhi's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in the wake of the tragic Pahalgam terror attack on April 22 that claimed the lives of 26 innocent civilians.
"If this downward trend in inflows persists, we will need to reassess the shortage," stated an IRSA representative.
Officials noted apprehensions regarding a projected 21 percent shortage in early Kharif water availability—an essential period for planting summer crops such as rice, sugarcane, and cotton.
The anticipated water shortage from June to September was initially estimated to be at least seven percent under normal supply conditions. However, with the disruption of water from India, this figure is expected to escalate to 21 percent.
According to the IRSA statement, the committee has agreed to implement a conjunctive use strategy to manage water from the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs. This strategy aims to ensure that provinces receive their designated share despite the reduced river flows.
The water deficit poses a significant threat to Pakistan's agriculture sector, which employs over 38 percent of the workforce and contributes approximately 20 percent to the national GDP.
“Extended shortages could disrupt crop cycles, diminish yields, and further escalate food prices, endangering the livelihoods of millions reliant on these agricultural products,” remarked Israr Khan, an analyst.
Experts have cautioned that limited water supply could have devastating consequences, particularly during the sowing season.
“The diminished water supply, especially during the planting months, could have a cascading effect on rural incomes, export revenues, and food security. The cotton yield, which is crucial for Pakistan’s textile industry, could face severe repercussions if irrigation shortages continue,” emphasized Khan.
Concerns about water scarcity were heightened after India abruptly closed all sluice gates of the Salal and Baglihar hydropower dams located in the Raesi and Ramban districts, without any formal notification.