Pakistan's military establishment under General Asim Munir has spent the past three years systematically tightening its grip on political life through what analysts describe as a 'hard state' approach — a militarised framework that combines political repression, constitutional redesign, and the criminalisation of dissent to centralise authority and neutralise opposition. The findings are drawn from a detailed assessment published by Sri Lankan media outlet News Wire.

Political Prisoners and the PTI Crackdown

The number of political prisoners in Pakistan has grown significantly under the current dispensation, according to the report. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his wife have remained imprisoned for nearly three years, while members of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have faced both legal and extra-legal repression. Public gatherings — particularly in the capital, Islamabad — are increasingly criminalised.

The report notes that the regime's strategy to suppress street mobilisation and blunt PTI's political momentum has proved 'largely successful', with appetite for confrontational politics in the central province of Punjab having 'significantly dissipated since 2023.' Yet it acknowledges a critical caveat: Khan retains widespread popularity even from behind bars, suggesting the regime's consolidation remains incomplete.

Digital Repression and PECA Prosecutions

Despite the deployment of internet firewalls to restrict unwanted traffic and the enforcement of the Pakistan Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) to criminalise online criticism of government and military officials, the report notes that critical voices have continued in the digital sphere. Two cases have drawn particular attention.

In one widely publicised instance, courts used PECA to sentence human rights lawyers Imaan Mazari and Hadi Ali Chatha to 17 years in prison for social media posts condemning the state's reliance on enforced disappearances in Balochistan. In a separate case, a Canadian doctoral student conducting academic research in Pakistan was charged under PECA for social media posts and was reportedly missing for at least three days before the case became public.

Ethnic Minorities and Peripheral Regions

Beyond Pakistan's political centres, the report documents the suppression of rights-based movements representing ethnic minorities. Ali Wazir, a leader of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) — which advocates accountability for security operations in Pakistan's northwest — has been imprisoned. Similarly, Mahrang Baloch and other activists affiliated with the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), which campaigns against enforced disappearances and for Baloch rights, have been imprisoned and silenced, according to the report.

Afghan Deportations and Forced Evictions

The report also highlights the intensification of mass deportations of Afghan refugees by Pakistani authorities. Human Rights Watch (HRW), the US-based advocacy group, reportedly documented that over 146,000 Afghans have been forcibly returned in the current year alone. Notably, these deportations coincided with US-Iran peace talks held in Islamabad, during which marginalised communities were also forcibly evicted through anti-encroachment operations targeting long-established informal settlements.

Outlook: Autocracy Without Accountability

The report concludes with a sobering assessment of the external environment. Amid a broader global shift toward autocracy, it argues that the Munir regime is unlikely to face sustained international scrutiny over its democratic and legal backsliding. Instead, it appears to be leveraging an enhanced international profile to consolidate domestic authority and bolster legitimacy. With global attention fragmented, critics warn that Pakistan's democratic space may continue to narrow without meaningful external pressure.