Ohio governor race: Ramaswamy trails Acton by 6 points in BGSU poll
Synopsis
Vivek Ramaswamy's Ohio governor bid is looking shakier: a new BGSU poll has Democrat Amy Acton up six points — double the September gap — and Trump's own 2024 voters in the state are expressing regret. With early voting already open and polling aggregates giving Acton a five-point edge, the race analysts are still calling a toss-up is quietly slipping away from the Republican.
Key Takeaways
Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy 50–44 in the latest BGSU/YouGov poll of 1,000 likely Ohio voters .
The gap has doubled since September, when Acton led 48–45 .
Despite the polling deficit, 55 per cent of respondents still expect Ramaswamy to win on 3 November .
Polling aggregates give Acton a roughly five-point advantage; Cook Political Report , Inside Elections , and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race a toss-up.
President Trump 's Ohio approval stands at 39 per cent , with 24 per cent of his 2024 voters expressing regret.
Ramaswamy has lent his campaign more than $36 million ; Acton outraised him in September $6 million to $3 million .
Indian-American Republican Vivek Ramaswamy now trails Democrat Amy Acton by six percentage points in the Ohio governor's race, according to a new poll by Bowling Green State University (BGSU) — double the gap recorded just a month ago, even as a majority of likely voters still expect Ramaswamy to prevail on 3 November.
Key Poll Numbers
The BGSU survey, a web-based poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted with YouGov between 29 September and 9 October, placed Acton at 50 per cent and Ramaswamy at 44 per cent, with a margin of error of 3.95 points. The previous BGSU poll in September had shown Acton ahead 48–45.
Despite Acton's growing lead in the numbers, 55 per cent of respondents said they expected Ramaswamy to win the election regardless of their personal preference, compared with 43 per cent picking Acton. That expectation gap has narrowed considerably from 62–36 in September's poll.
Where Each Candidate Stands on Key Attributes
Acton led Ramaswamy on 'caring about ordinary people' by a significant 48–30 margin, and on honesty at 42–34. The two candidates were tied at 41–41 on competence. Ramaswamy's net favourability stood at minus 10, compared with minus 1 for Acton.
Fifty-one per cent of respondents said Ramaswamy had run more negative advertisements, against 28 per cent who said the same of Acton.
What Other Polls Show
The BGSU findings are broadly consistent with a wider polling trend. A CNN/SSRS survey of 760 likely voters placed Acton ahead 50–42, while a New York Times/Siena poll of 616 likely voters showed her leading 49–45. A co/efficient poll of 925 likely voters was an outlier, placing Ramaswamy ahead 45–43.
Polling aggregates consistently show Acton with approximately a five-point advantage. TrackTheVote gave her 48.7 per cent to Ramaswamy's 43.7 per cent; FiftyPlusOne put the split at 48.7 to 43.9; and The Hill/Decision Desk HQ showed 48.3 to 43.6. Despite these averages, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race a toss-up.
Trump Factor and Expert Caution
President Donald Trump's approval rating in Ohio stood at just 39 per cent in the same survey, with 58 per cent disapproving. Notably, 24 per cent of Trump's own 2024 voters in Ohio reported regretting their vote — 14 per cent to some degree and 10 per cent a great deal — a figure that could complicate Ramaswamy's efforts to mobilise the Republican base.
BGSU political science professor Robert Alexander urged caution, however. 'While this will be welcome news to Democrats, a blue wave in Ohio is far from a sure thing. Republicans have closed well in recent statewide elections, and I would be surprised if these races did not end up within the margin of error in either direction,' he said.
Money Race and What Comes Next
On the fundraising front, Ramaswamy has lent his own campaign more than $36 million, including over $5 million in August and September alone. Acton, by contrast, raised slightly more than $6 million in September to Ramaswamy's little more than $3 million, according to the Ohio Capital Journal. The next state campaign finance reports are due on 23 October.
Early voting is already under way ahead of the 3 November election. Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur and son of Indian immigrants, is seeking to become only the third Indian-American governor in US history, after Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Nikki Haley of South Carolina.
Point of View
Not a polling blip. Ramaswamy's self-funding advantage — over $36 million lent — has not translated into favourable numbers on the attributes that decide close races: likeability and trust. More damaging still is the Trump approval dynamic: at 39 per cent approval in a state Trump carried twice, the MAGA base that Ramaswamy was counting on appears softer than his campaign assumed. The race remains a toss-up on paper, but the directional arrow is pointing the wrong way for Republicans with two weeks to go.
NationPress
18 Oct 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest Ohio governor poll show?
The BGSU/YouGov poll of 1,000 likely voters puts Democrat Amy Acton at 50 per cent and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy at 44 per cent, a six-point gap that has doubled since September. The margin of error is 3.95 points.
Why do most Ohio voters still expect Ramaswamy to win despite the polls?
Fifty-five per cent of respondents said they expected Ramaswamy to win regardless of their own vote preference, possibly reflecting a historical pattern of Republican candidates closing strongly in Ohio statewide races. That expectation share has narrowed from 62 per cent in the September poll, however.
How does fundraising compare between Acton and Ramaswamy?
Acton raised slightly more than $6 million in September compared with Ramaswamy's little more than $3 million. Ramaswamy has offset this by lending his own campaign more than $36 million. The next Ohio campaign finance disclosures are due on 23 October.
What do other polls say about the Ohio governor race?
A CNN/SSRS poll gives Acton an eight-point lead (50–42), a New York Times/Siena poll shows her up four points (49–45), and a co/efficient poll gives Ramaswamy a narrow two-point edge (45–43). Polling averages across major trackers give Acton approximately a five-point advantage.
What would Ramaswamy's election mean historically?
A Ramaswamy victory would make him the third Indian-American governor in US history, after Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Nikki Haley of South Carolina. He is a biotech entrepreneur and the son of Indian immigrants.
