Did Congress' Past Victories Also See Significant Voter Increases?

New Delhi, June 10 (NationPress) The assertion made by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi regarding alleged electoral fraud during the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections has ignited a renewed political discourse. Data analysts and political observers have highlighted significant contradictions in his claims. The Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha suggested that the voter lists were manipulated to favor the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which triumphed in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections conducted shortly after the Lok Sabha polls.

At the heart of his allegation is the claim that the number of registered voters surged from 9.29 crore during the Lok Sabha elections to 9.70 crore in time for the Assembly polls, indicating what he termed “match-fixing” through inflation of voter lists.

However, analysts contend that such an increase in voter numbers between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections is neither unusual nor unprecedented, and it has not solely benefited the BJP. Historical data from previous election cycles reveal similar, if not larger, increases in voter populations that aligned with victories for the Congress-led coalition.

Data shared by the information-focused X handle, infoindata, offers a counterview. The figures indicate that significant increases in voter counts have been observed in past election cycles across both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Maharashtra, often coinciding with electoral successes for the Congress-led coalition.

For instance, in 2009, the electorate expanded by 69.88 lakh (10.59%) in Maharashtra ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, during which the Congress-led coalition won a majority of the seats (25/48). In the subsequent Assembly elections of the same year, the voter tally rose by 30.14 lakh (4.13%), again leading to a Congress-led victory (144/288).

A similar trend was noted in 2004, with voter numbers increasing by 61.36 lakh (10.79%) during the Lok Sabha elections, when the Congress-led coalition secured 23 out of 48 seats. The following Assembly elections saw an increase of 29.54 lakh (4.69%), allowing Congress to win 152 out of 288 seats.

Even in the 2019 Assembly elections, where the Congress-led coalition achieved 158 seats, there was an increase in the voter list by 11.61 lakh. In the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the voter count rose by 9.51 lakh, with the Congress-led alliance winning 33 out of 48 seats.

Notably, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year, voter registration increased by 32.23 lakh (3.59%) in Maharashtra. Far from being at a disadvantage, the Congress-led alliance performed robustly, winning 30 out of 48 seats in the state. This trend raises substantial questions about the validity of Rahul Gandhi’s allegations.

If an uptick in voter registration equates to electoral manipulation, observers argue, then Congress must also clarify its own past victories in years where increases in electorates were even more pronounced.

Furthermore, if a rise in voter numbers is regarded as suspicious or indicative of manipulation, then Congress must take into account its historical achievements that coincided with even larger increases in electorates. For example, the increase in 2009 was over 69 lakh—significantly greater than the 41 lakh increase Gandhi noted for 2024—yet Congress celebrated a resounding victory then, say analysts.

Experts emphasize that updates to electoral rolls are standard procedures of the Election Commission and are anticipated in a dynamic and evolving democracy. These updates encompass the addition of first-time voters, rectifying previous inaccuracies, and including previously excluded eligible citizens. In a state like Maharashtra, characterized by significant migration, urbanization, and population growth, such increases are not only plausible but expected.

Political analysts are scrutinizing the internal consistency of Gandhi’s argument. If rising voter numbers are to be treated with skepticism only when the BJP wins, but not when the Congress-led alliance benefits, the claim loses its credibility. Critics contend that such statements could undermine public trust in democratic institutions without substantial evidence.

The data implies that the increase in voter numbers in 2024 is neither an anomaly nor unprecedented. Past elections won by the Congress-led coalition—often with even larger voter increases—diminish the assertion that the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election was manipulated through artificial inflation of the electorate. Absent concrete proof of misconduct, the rise in voter registration alone does not substantiate allegations of match-fixing.