Market Forecast: Key Influencers Next Week Including Retail Inflation and Tariff Policies
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Synopsis
As we approach next week, market trends will be shaped by pivotal factors such as India's retail inflation figures, FIIs activities, currency fluctuations, and Trump's tariff policies. The stock market will also observe a closure for Holi celebrations, influencing trading dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- India's retail inflation data will be released on March 12.
- The stock market will close on March 14 for Holi.
- Nifty index rose nearly 2% last week.
- Smallcap and midcap stocks saw significant buying activity.
- FIIs recorded net outflows while DIIs provided market stability.
Mumbai, March 9 (NationPress) The market outlook for the upcoming week is influenced by various domestic and international factors including India’s retail inflation data, FIIs activities, dollar to Rupee fluctuations, and Trump's tariff policy.
The release of India’s retail and wholesale inflation data is scheduled for March 12, while the stock market will be closed on March 14 in observance of Holi.
In the previous week, the stock market experienced significant gains. After three consecutive weeks of declines, the Nifty index climbed nearly two percent to reach 22,552.50, while the Sensex increased by 1.55 percent to 74,332.58.
During the trading sessions from March 3 to 7, there was notable buying activity in smallcap and midcap stocks. The Nifty Midcap 100 index surged by 2.66 percent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index soared by 5.47 percent.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, remarked that the domestic market has rebounded from oversold conditions; however, a significant upward trend will depend on the recovery of corporate earnings and a reduction in tariff uncertainties.
Among the sectoral indices, notable performers included metal, energy, media, and PSE. The Nifty Metal index surged by 8.61 percent, the Nifty Media index rallied by 7.36 percent, the Nifty PSE index increased by 7.36 percent, and the Nifty Energy index provided a return of 5.90 percent.
Additionally, a marked decline in the US dollar index, reduced crude oil prices, and the strength of the Indian Rupee against the dollar further bolstered equities.
On the institutional front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) recorded a net outflow of Rs 15,501 crore in the cash segment, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) injected Rs 20,950 crore, which provided stability to the market.
Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, stated, "The Nifty rebounded almost two percent this week from its 100-week EMA at 22,051 after hitting its lowest level since mid-May 2024. The immediate resistance is at 22,700, corresponding with the 21-day EMA, and a sustained movement above this level could propel Nifty towards 23,100."
