Patna, Nov 11 (NationPress) The double-engine government led by Nitish Kumar appears poised to reclaim power with a decisive mandate in the fiercely contested Bihar Assembly elections. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan seems to be slipping into a distant second place, as indicated by the IANS-Matrize Exit Polls.

According to the projections from the Exit polls, the BJP-led NDA is expected to secure a significant 48 percent vote share, effectively translating to nearly a two-thirds majority in the 243-member Assembly. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan is anticipated to achieve only a 37 percent vote share, which could yield around 70-90 seats for the RJD-Congress-led coalition.

A notable aspect of the Exit polls is the resurgence of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), which faced scrutiny leading up to the elections due to the Chief Minister's health issues. The polls indicate a strong consolidation of JD(U) supporters, suggesting that the party may even emerge as the largest single entity, surpassing both its ally BJP and rival RJD.

The BJP is projected to maintain its performance, similar to the previous election in 2020, with expectations of securing 65-73 seats and approximately 19 percent vote share.

The RJD is forecasted to obtain a 21 percent vote share and win 53-58 seats, while its main ally, the Congress, is expected to achieve a modest 7 percent vote share, translating to around 10-12 seats.

If the Exit poll predictions come to fruition on November 14, it would signify a resounding endorsement for the Nitish Kumar government and a disappointing outcome for the Mahagathbandhan, despite their vigorous campaign against alleged electoral malpractice.

The smaller NDA constituents, such as Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustan Awam Morcha (HMA), Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha, are expected to gather 2, 5, and 2 percent vote share respectively. Collectively, these parties may contribute an additional 12-16 seats to the NDA, boosting its total to 147-167 seats.

For the Mahagathbandhan, parties like CPI(ML), CPI, CPI (M), and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) are expected to achieve a combined 9 percent vote share, resulting in approximately 10-18 seats. Overall, the grand alliance is projected to settle around 70-90 seats.

The Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj is anticipated to make a notable debut with a 5 percent vote share, while the Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM is expected to secure 1 percent vote share.

While Jan Suraaj may win 0-2 seats, AIMIM could achieve victories in 2-3 constituencies. Other parties together are likely to receive a 9 percent vote share and win about 0-5 seats.

The vote percentage and seat share projections by the IANS-Matrize Exit Polls come with an error margin of plus or minus 3 percent. The analysis is based on a survey of over 66,000 individuals, including more than 31,000 males, over 19,000 females, and over 15,000 young voters, conducted until November 11 – during the second phase of polling, which saw record voter turnout.