New Delhi, Dec 27 (NationPress) As the race for the 2026 Assembly elections heats up, political factions opposing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are increasingly concerned about the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) making inroads into tribal-dominated regions. The silence from Badruddin Ajmal, the businessman leading the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), regarding a potential alliance with the Congress-led Mahajot adds to their apprehensions.

The JMM, which is a key player in Jharkhand’s government, hinted at expanding its influence in select constituencies in Assam and West Bengal ahead of the upcoming elections. Their aim includes mobilizing migrants from Jharkhand in various states, such as Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.

To assess the situation on the ground, the JMM has established a delegation slated to visit Assam. This expansion effort could position the party as a significant force in tribal areas across the nation, paving the way for national recognition.

During the recent Bihar elections, the JMM attempted to ally with the Opposition's Mahagathbandhan bloc but withdrew from the contest despite the coalition holding power in Jharkhand. This withdrawal left its leaders dissatisfied and has led to a reassessment of their alliance in Jharkhand. The uneasy dynamics among these parties could disrupt anti-NDA votes in other critical states, inadvertently benefiting the BJP, which maintains a more stable seat allocation.

The upcoming report from the JMM delegation after their visit to Assam will clarify the party's future strategies.

According to the 2011 Census, Assam’s population exceeds 3 crore, with Scheduled Tribes comprising nearly 39 lakhs, or 12.4 percent of the total. The majority of the tribal population resides in rural settings, with the primary tribes being Bodo, Mishing, Karbi, Rabha, SonowalKachari, Lalung, Garo, and Dimasa.

Out of the 126 seats in the Assam Legislative Assembly, 19 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, along with two of the 14 Parliamentary Constituencies. Tribal issues are particularly sensitive, and tensions have arisen with settlers, deemed outsiders.

Lower Assam has witnessed violent confrontations between Bodo and Bengali-speaking Muslims. The region of Karbi Anglong is currently experiencing tensions due to clashes between local Karbi tribal groups and non-Karbi settlers from Bihar.

Assam’s tribal politics is heavily influenced by regional parties and autonomous council-based groups, compelling the JMM to negotiate with local leaders, which may undermine the state’s primary Opposition, the Congress party.

The United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) has established its presence in the Bodoland Territorial Region, winning six out of 11 seats contested as part of the NDA in the 2021 Assembly elections.

Simultaneously, the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), a former NDA partner, later allied with the Congress-led Mahajot, securing four out of 12 seats in the last Assembly elections. While the JMM's entry could challenge the Congress in specific areas, Ajmal's indecision raises further questions about Mahajot's stability. He has been considering either going solo or collaborating with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), creating unrest within the Congress.

Historically, the AIUDF and Congress have worked together in minority-rich constituencies in Lower Assam and Barak Valley, but this partnership has been inconsistent, given Congress's unease with Ajmal’s influence. Recent reports suggest a potential seat-sharing arrangement with AIMIM, without formalizing an agreement. The AIUDF, which is strong in Muslim-majority regions, won 16 of the 20 seats it contested during the last election.

The Congress itself achieved victories in 29 of the 95 seats it competed for, while the Mahajot overall secured 50 seats, up from 26 in 2016.

In contrast, the BJP claimed 60 seats, solidifying its government in 2021 and marking the first time a non-Congress coalition has won consecutive terms in the state.

The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), a regional party aligned with the BJP, won nine seats. The last state elections were primarily dominated by the BJP and Congress, but regional and minority-focused parties such as the AIUDF, AGP, UPPL, and BPF played pivotal roles in coalition-building and influencing outcomes in tribal and minority areas.