Protests in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) have continued unabated despite a sweeping crackdown by the Pakistan establishment, with the arrest of Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) leader Shaukat Nawaz Mir on 1 July failing to dent demonstrator resolve. According to officials, the establishment is now gripped by panic as its strategy of brute force, forced disappearances, and high-profile detentions has not only failed to suppress dissent — it has intensified it.

The Arrest of Shaukat Nawaz Mir

Shaukat Nawaz Mir, one of the most prominent voices in PoK and a senior leader of the JAAC, was picked up in a coordinated operation involving Intelligence agencies, local police, and Pakistan Rangers. He was subsequently transferred to Rawalpindi, reportedly to place him under direct military oversight. According to officials, the transfer itself was intended as a signal — a warning of what awaits other protest leaders who refuse to stand down.

The JAAC, however, has dismissed the move. The committee has made clear that the protests are not contingent on any individual leader and that demonstrations will continue regardless of who is detained. 'It is not a protest by some organisation, but by the people,' the JAAC has stated.

A Crackdown That Has Backfired

Officials say the Pakistan establishment had expected the protests to dissipate over time, as they have in the past. That calculation has not held. Firing at protesters — including women and children — forced disappearances, and threats under anti-terrorism laws have, according to officials, only hardened public resolve. The establishment is now reportedly confronting a crisis in PoK of a scale it has not previously encountered.

Notably, a growing number of residents in the region have begun publicly declaring that they no longer consider themselves part of Pakistan, with calls for outright independence gaining traction. Officials say this shift has alarmed the establishment more than the protests themselves.

Roots of the Unrest

The demonstrations were triggered by longstanding economic grievances: demands for wheat subsidies, fair electricity pricing, and an end to what protesters describe as the systematic exploitation of PoK's natural resources. The establishment has so far not addressed any of these demands.

The unrest has been further inflamed by remarks from Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, who reportedly described the people of Rawalot and Mirpur as 'not proper Kashmiris.' According to officials, the comment has deepened the rift between the region's population and the federal establishment, and has been widely condemned within PoK.

Pakistan's Attempt to Shift the Narrative

Facing mounting domestic pressure, the Pakistan establishment has reportedly pivoted to an external deflection strategy. Officials say Islamabad has begun pushing a narrative around the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — which India placed in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack by Pakistan-based militants in which 26 people were killed — framing New Delhi as committing 'water terrorism.'

According to officials, the aim is to divert attention from the PoK crisis and the broader economic deterioration within Pakistan, and to build a global narrative implicating India. The accusation that India is backing the PoK protests has, according to officials, not been taken seriously internationally.

Officials also note that Pakistan's own water infrastructure challenges — including severe financial constraints affecting the Diamer-Bhasha and Dasu dam projects and poorly maintained canal networks — are unlikely to be acknowledged publicly by the establishment.

What Comes Next

With the JAAC signalling no let-up and public sentiment in PoK hardening, the Pakistan establishment faces a deepening legitimacy crisis in the region. Officials warn that continued repression without addressing core economic demands risks further radicalising public opinion — and potentially expanding the protest movement beyond its current base.