Kerala Election Results 2025: UDF leads 99 seats, Vijayan trails in Dharmadam
Synopsis
A decade of Left rule in Kerala is on the verge of collapse. With the UDF leading in 99 of 140 seats, CM Pinarayi Vijayan trailing in his own constituency, and 15 of 21 ministers behind in their seats, the 2025 Kerala verdict looks like one of the most decisive anti-incumbency sweeps in the state's modern electoral history.
Key Takeaways
The UDF is leading in 99 seats in the 140-member Kerala Assembly as of the third round of counting on 4 May 2025 .
CM Pinarayi Vijayan is trailing in Dharmadam , his own constituency.
15 out of 21 LDF cabinet ministers are currently behind in their respective seats.
The LDF is ahead in just 40 seats , down from its 98-seat majority in the 2021 Assembly.
The NDA is leading in one seat ; the UDF could cross 100 seats if trends hold.
Opposition leader V.
Satheesan has surged ahead after briefly trailing in early rounds.
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is surging toward a historic mandate in the Kerala Assembly Election 2025, with trends on Monday, 4 May pointing to a sweeping victory that could end a decade of Left rule in the state. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan himself is trailing in his own constituency of Dharmadam after the third round of counting, signalling the scale of the Left Democratic Front (LDF)'s rout.
In the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly, the UDF is currently leading in 99 seats — well past the majority mark of 71 — while the LDF is ahead in just 40 constituencies. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is ahead in one seat.
Key Developments in the Count
Leader of the Opposition V. D. Satheesan, who briefly trailed in the early rounds, has surged ahead in his constituency, mirroring the broader UDF momentum. The volatility of the initial rounds has since given way to a clearer directional trend favouring the Congress-led alliance.
Notably, 15 out of 21 LDF cabinet ministers are currently trailing in their respective constituencies — a staggering statistic that underscores the depth of the anti-incumbency wave. If these trends hold, the outgoing government could face one of the most comprehensive defeats in Kerala's post-Independence electoral history.
LDF Strongholds Under Pressure
The Left's traditional bastion of Kannur — long considered an impregnable fortress for the Communist Party of India (Marxist) — has shown unexpected strain, with several seats witnessing tighter-than-anticipated contests. While the LDF continues to lead in some pockets of the district, the margins are reportedly narrower than in previous elections.
The narrow leads the LDF holds in several constituencies also leave open the possibility of further erosion in later counting rounds, raising the prospect of the UDF crossing the 100-seat mark — a landslide threshold in Kerala's competitive political landscape.
A Dramatic Reversal from 2021
The emerging trends represent a stunning reversal from the outgoing Assembly's composition, where the LDF commanded 98 seats after its landmark 2021 victory — the first time in four decades that a Kerala government had been returned to power for a consecutive term. The UDF had been reduced to the opposition benches, and the NDA had failed to open its account.
This time, according to counting trends, voters appear to have opted decisively for change after two consecutive terms of Left governance spanning nearly a decade under Vijayan's leadership.
What Happens Next
Counting is continuing under tight security across the state. If the UDF's lead solidifies, V. D. Satheesan is widely expected to emerge as the frontrunner for the Chief Minister's post. The final seat tally will determine the UDF's mandate and the scale of the LDF's opposition presence in the new House. All eyes now turn to whether the Left can limit its losses in the remaining counting rounds, and whether the NDA can convert its lone lead into a seat.
Point of View
If it holds, is not merely a change of government — it is the puncturing of a political myth. Vijayan's 2021 re-election had been framed as proof that Kerala voters rewarded governance over identity politics. But two terms have accumulated enough fatigue, and the LDF's failure to protect even its cabinet ministers in their home turf suggests the wave is structural, not marginal. The real question now is whether the UDF, historically prone to internal coalition friction, can convert a landslide mandate into stable governance — or whether Kerala's political pendulum will simply be set in motion again.
NationPress
2 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is winning the Kerala Election 2025?
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is leading in 99 of 140 seats as of the third round of counting on 4 May 2025, pointing to a decisive majority. The LDF is ahead in just 40 seats, with the NDA leading in one.
Is CM Pinarayi Vijayan losing in Kerala 2025?
According to counting trends after the third round, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is trailing in his constituency of Dharmadam. However, counting is still in progress and the final result is yet to be declared.
How many seats does the UDF need for a majority in Kerala?
The Kerala Legislative Assembly has 140 seats, requiring 71 seats for a simple majority. The UDF is currently leading in 99 seats, well past the majority threshold.
How does the 2025 Kerala result compare to 2021?
In 2021, the LDF won a historic 98 seats, becoming the first government in four decades to win back-to-back terms in Kerala. Current 2025 trends show a dramatic reversal, with the LDF ahead in just 40 seats.
Who could become Kerala's next Chief Minister?
If the UDF wins, Opposition Leader V. D. Satheesan is widely seen as the frontrunner for the Chief Minister's post. Satheesan, who briefly trailed in early counting rounds, has since surged ahead in his own constituency.
