Kerala exit polls 2025: UDF leads, CM Vijayan's LDF set to lose power
Synopsis
Exit polls from multiple agencies converge on one outcome: the Congress-led UDF is set to end a decade of Left rule in Kerala, projecting CM Pinarayi Vijayan out of power. With the UDF projected at 70–85 seats and a five-point vote-share lead, the numbers point to a significant anti-incumbency wave — though the 2021 precedent reminds us that projections are not verdicts.
Key Takeaways
Multiple exit polls project the Congress-led UDF winning 70–85 seats in Kerala's 140-member Assembly , crossing the majority mark of 71 .
CM Pinarayi Vijayan's LDF , which held 99 seats in the outgoing assembly, is projected to fall to 55–69 seats across surveys.
Axis My India projects UDF vote share at 44% vs LDF's 39% — a gap of roughly five percentage points .
The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 0–5 seats , with limited gains expected even in triangular contests.
Polling was held on April 9 ; counting is scheduled for Monday .
In 2021 , most exit polls correctly predicted an LDF win, lending credibility — but not certainty — to current projections.
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to return to power in Kerala after a decade in opposition, according to a broad convergence of exit poll estimates released on Wednesday, 29 April. If the forecasts hold, they would signal the end of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's decade-long rule and hand the Left Democratic Front (LDF) its first electoral defeat since 2016.
What the Exit Polls Project
Most surveys indicate the UDF is set to cross the majority mark of 71 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly. The CNN–News18 exit poll estimates the UDF tally at 70–80 seats, while People's Pulse projects a stronger performance of 75–85 seats. Other agencies — including PMARQ and Matrize — have also indicated a consistent UDF lead, reinforcing the emerging trend across projections.
In detail: CNN–News18 gives the UDF 70–80 seats, the LDF 58–68, and the NDA 0–4. PMARQ projects the UDF at 71–79, the LDF at 62–69, and the NDA at 1–4. Matrize gives the UDF 70–75, the LDF 60–65, and the NDA 3–5. People's Pulse goes furthest, projecting the UDF at 75–85, the LDF at 55–65, and the NDA at 0–3.
Vote Share and the Swing in Numbers
Axis My India projects the UDF securing around 44 per cent of the vote, compared with 39 per cent for the LDF, 14 per cent for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and approximately 3 per cent for others. Surveys by Times Now-JVC, CNN Vote Vibe, and PMARQ similarly point to a UDF lead of roughly five percentage points, suggesting a decisive swing in voter preference.
How Each Alliance Is Reading the Numbers
The ruling LDF, which held 99 seats in the outgoing assembly, had expressed confidence soon after polling closed on April 9 that its governance record and welfare measures would ensure continuity in power, even indicating that a narrow majority would suffice. The UDF, by contrast, has asserted that anti-incumbency sentiment and a united campaign translated into a clear mandate, with some leaders claiming the alliance could surpass 85 seats and even approach the 90-seat mark if the trend strengthens.
The BJP-led NDA, while not projected to make significant gains, remains hopeful of improving its presence, particularly in constituencies witnessing triangular contests.
A Note of Caution: 2021 Precedent
The exit polls were released following the completion of polling phases in other states, including West Bengal, with counting scheduled for Monday. Notably, in the 2021 Kerala elections, most exit polls had correctly predicted an LDF return to power — a reminder that polling agencies have shown reasonable accuracy in this state, adding credibility to the current projections but also underlining that they remain forecasts, not results. With strong voter turnout recorded on April 9, Kerala now awaits the final verdict to determine whether this projected shift in power will materialise.
Point of View
Built on a uniquely favourable 2021 environment of pandemic-era welfare credibility and a fragmented UDF. That advantage has evidently eroded. The more consequential question is whether a returning UDF can hold together long enough to govern — its last tenure ended amid internal friction — and whether a weakened LDF will use the opposition years to rebuild or fracture further.
NationPress
1 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the Kerala 2025 exit polls predict?
Most exit polls project the Congress-led UDF winning between 70 and 85 seats in the 140-member Kerala Assembly, crossing the majority mark of 71 and ending CM Pinarayi Vijayan's decade-long LDF rule. The LDF is projected to fall to between 55 and 69 seats across surveys.
When will Kerala election results be declared?
Counting for the Kerala Assembly election is scheduled for Monday, following polling that was held on April 9. Exit poll projections were released on Wednesday, 29 April.
How accurate were exit polls in the 2021 Kerala election?
In the 2021 Kerala Assembly election, most exit polls correctly predicted an LDF return to power, lending some credibility to the current projections. However, exit polls remain forecasts and not confirmed results.
What vote share is the UDF projected to win in Kerala?
Axis My India projects the UDF securing around 44 per cent of the vote, compared with 39 per cent for the LDF and 14 per cent for the BJP-led NDA. Multiple other agencies also point to a UDF lead of roughly five percentage points.
How many seats did the LDF hold in the outgoing Kerala Assembly?
The LDF held 99 seats in the outgoing 140-member Kerala Assembly. Exit polls now project it falling significantly, to between 55 and 69 seats, which would represent a major reversal from its 2021 performance.
