Is China's Population Decline Inevitable?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
New Delhi, Jan 28 (NationPress) Despite the implementation of various initiatives aimed at enhancing its population growth, China is experiencing a notable decrease in its birth rates, as highlighted in a recent media report. Official statistics reveal that the nation's birth count reached a record low last year, with only 7.92 million births—a staggering 17% decline from 9.54 million in the previous year—marking the lowest level since 1949, according to Myanmar-based MeKongNews.
The total population saw a reduction of 3.39 million, bringing it to 1.4049 billion, while the number of deaths rose to 11.31 million, the highest figure recorded in the past fifty years.
This situation emphasizes the shortcomings of the current family-support policies and childcare subsidies, indicating a dual challenge of an ageing population and persistent demographic imbalances stemming from decades of restrictive family planning.
Chinese experts have expressed alarm over the ongoing population decline, predicting a significant impact on the economy, job market, and social structures in the years to come.
Concerns have been raised regarding socio-economic factors such as young individuals delaying marriage or opting out entirely, escalating living expenses, housing instability, and fierce job competition, all of which render parenthood less attractive.
According to the report, a contracting and ageing population poses risks to long-term productivity, strains pension systems, and jeopardizes China's consumer market at a time when the government is striving for a shift towards growth driven by domestic demand.
In response, the report notes the government's pronatalist measures over the past year to enhance the population's demographics.
These efforts include a national childcare subsidy of up to 10,800 yuan ($1,534) per child under the age of three, marking the most significant family-support initiative since the transition to a three-child policy in 2021.
Additional measures comprise extending insurance coverage for childbirth-related expenses, enforcing stricter regulations on the childcare sector, simplifying marriage registration, and tightening divorce procedures.
After witnessing a sharp decrease of 6.106 million registrations in 2024—the lowest since 1980—there are early indications of a rebound in marriage rates.
“Marriage registrations increased by 8.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, with substantial rises in major cities like Shanghai (38.7%) and Fujian (12%). The China Population Association anticipates approximately 6.9 million marriages for 2025, projecting that births in 2026 might surpass 8 million,” the report noted.
However, it cautioned that the dwindling number of women of childbearing age, weak fertility intentions, and the trend of delaying parenthood persist. Without more comprehensive support such as affordable housing, improved work-life balance, equitable employment practices, and dependable childcare, mere policy changes may only slow down, not reverse, the demographic decline.