Did Bihar Voters Correct Lok Sabha Mistake and Reaffirm Trust in PM Modi?
Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- The NDA's overwhelming mandate reflects a correction by voters.
- PM Modi's popularity remains strong, especially among women.
- Welfare schemes have positively influenced voter sentiment.
- The BJP and JD-U both gained in vote shares compared to previous elections.
- The Mahagathbandhan struggled to capture women’s votes.
New Delhi, Nov 14 (NationPress) The overwhelming support for the NDA in the Bihar Assembly elections not only showcases Prime Minister Narendra Modi's lasting appeal but also indicates a significant correction by many voters who previously did not support the BJP-led coalition during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, according to political analysts on Friday.
As consistently observed in Assembly elections following the Lok Sabha elections last year, there appears to be a sense of remorse among voters, prompting them to vote in favor of the BJP in Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi, and now Bihar, remarked a psephologist.
An opinion survey conducted in Haryana and Maharashtra shortly after the BJP's substantial victory in the Western state last November revealed that over 50% of respondents in both regions believed that PM Modi's popularity had surged after the Lok Sabha elections.
In Bihar, the 2024 Lok Sabha outcome saw the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) lose 10 seats compared to 2019, dropping from 39 to 29 out of a total of 40 parliamentary seats.
Nevertheless, the NDA has managed to rebound in the recent Bihar Assembly elections, achieving nearly 200 seats in the 243-member State Legislature, just a year and a half after the setback in the parliamentary polls.
Experts suggest that the voters' correction after the Lok Sabha elections is evident, as the substantial mandate in the Assembly polls reflects public satisfaction, particularly among women voters, with the implementation of welfare initiatives by PM Modi-led Central government and the Nitish Kumar-led Bihar government.
Both the BJP and JD-U have seen an increase in their vote share in the recent Bihar Assembly elections compared to the 2020 Assembly polls.
Counting day trends on Friday indicated that the BJP's vote share climbed to 20.67% from 19.5% in the 2020 Assembly elections, while JD-U's share increased to 19.67% from 15.4% in 2020.
In aggregate terms, the NDA's vote share in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections was 35.7%, which rose to 48.2% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. An IANS-Matrize Exit Poll conducted on November 11—during the second and final phase of voting in the Bihar Assembly elections—indicated that a remarkable 65% of women voters supported the NDA.
The Exit Poll's findings, based on a sample size of 66,087 with a margin of error of plus-minus three percent, suggested that the women-centric welfare schemes of the PM Modi-led Central government and the Nitish Kumar government had significantly resonated with women voters, who strongly supported the ruling coalition in the current elections.
In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, secured only 27% of the women's votes, as per the Exit Poll.