The Indian National Congress (INC) is heading into the upcoming Uttar Pradesh and Punjab Assembly elections burdened by twin crises: a fractious seat-sharing standoff with its own INDIA bloc partner in UP and deepening factional warfare within its Punjab unit. The pattern mirrors the internal turbulence that has repeatedly undermined the party in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka in recent election cycles.

UP: Congress and SP at loggerheads over seat share

In Uttar Pradesh, where all 403 Assembly seats are at stake, the Congress and the Samajwadi Party (SP) — partners in the INDIA bloc — are engaged in a war of attrition over their respective electoral footprints. Despite the two parties recording an improved combined performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, ground-level negotiations over seat distribution have grown increasingly tense.

Congress MP from Saharanpur Imran Masood escalated the friction by alleging that the SP has consistently failed to back influential Muslim leaders — a pointed charge given that both parties have long competed for minority community votes. The SP, for its part, has been consolidating its base around chief Akhilesh Yadav's 'PDA' plank — an acronym for 'Pichde' (Backward Classes), Dalits, and 'Alpsankhyak' (Minorities), with Yadav at times substituting 'Aadhi Aabadi' (women) for the 'A' in the formulation.

Newly appointed Congress state in-charge Rajendra Pal Gautam has signalled that the party will seek an equal share of seats, hardening the Congress's negotiating position. His reported visit to the residence of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati was widely read as a pressure tactic in seat-sharing talks with the SP — and as a Dalit outreach move that directly challenges the SP's PDA narrative.

Punjab: High command's Warring decision triggers senior revolt

In Punjab, the Congress's internal fault lines have widened following the central leadership's decision to retain Amarinder Singh Raja Warring as Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee (PPCC) chief. The call came after a three-member observer panel — appointed by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and led by Ajay Maken, with Meenakshi Natarajan and Bhajan Lal Jatav — submitted its assessment of the state's political and organisational situation to the party leadership.

The panel had been constituted to review Punjab's landscape following the Congress's poor showing in local body elections and conflicting internal surveys over whether Warring should be replaced. The decision to keep him in place reportedly angered Jalandhar MP Charanjit Singh Channi and senior leader Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa, both of whom have expressed dissatisfaction. Several other senior figures are reportedly rallying behind Channi.

At a meeting convened last weekend by AICC General Secretary in-charge of Punjab Bhupesh Baghel, dissident leaders reportedly made clear they would not accept Warring's authority. Baghel is currently touring the state in an effort to contain the crisis.

Punjab's electoral landscape: Opportunity amid disorder

The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, won several municipal wards in recent local body elections but is facing anti-incumbency sentiment. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) remains weakened after its 2022 rout, with limited urban reach, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is pushing to expand its urban footprint. A potential SAD-BJP alliance could consolidate anti-AAP votes, complicating the Congress's calculus. Despite its internal divisions, the Congress could still benefit from anti-incumbency if it presents a united front and leverages its traditional support among Hindus, certain Dalit communities, and sections of the Jat Sikh electorate.

A recurring pattern: Factionalism across state units

The current crises are not aberrations — they reflect a structural pattern. In Madhya Pradesh, factional battles between leaders such as Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh have repeatedly surfaced, undermining the party's ability to project unity. In Rajasthan, a prolonged power struggle between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot at times threatened the stability of the state government before contributing to the party's loss of power. In Karnataka, differences between Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar have periodically complicated the party's political strategy, even as the Congress holds government there.

These recurring episodes have not only weakened state units but have also eroded public confidence in the party's ability to remain cohesive against the BJP. The high command's repeated interventions to mediate disputes underscore both the persistence of factionalism and the difficulty of balancing regional leadership ambitions with central authority. As the Congress prepares for the next round of electoral battles, its capacity to manage these divisions will be the most consequential test of its organisational recovery.