India's E-retail Sector Expected to Hit $170-$190 Billion in GMV by 2030
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Synopsis
India's e-retail market is projected to grow significantly, reaching $170-$190 billion in GMV by 2030, driven by increased shopper engagement and the expansion of online commerce channels.
Key Takeaways
- Projected GMV of $170-$190 billion by 2030.
- India to have over 270 million online shoppers by 2024.
- E-retail expected to triple from $60 billion.
- Online retail spending to surpass 18% by 2030.
- 70% of growth from high-frequency purchase categories.
New Delhi, March 27 (NationPress) With the emergence of quick commerce, trend-driven commerce, and hyper-value commerce, India's e-retail sector is anticipated to achieve $170-$190 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2030, according to a report released on Thursday.
The report underscored India's rise as the second-largest e-retail shopper market globally, projecting an annual shopper base of more than 270 million by 2024.
India's e-retail market is set to triple by 2030, expanding from the current $60 billion. The overall retail market, valued at over $1 trillion in 2024, remains a vital channel even as online shopping continues to flourish, as noted by the report from Bain & Company and Flipkart.
By 2030, e-retail is expected to surpass 18 percent growth, with nearly one in ten retail dollars spent online, driven by rising discretionary spending as India's per capita GDP exceeds $3,500-$4,000—a significant inflection point observed in global e-retail spending.
“The democratization of the shopping environment, with enhanced access to national brands and assortments in Tier-3+ cities and remote, underserved regions, is a pivotal growth factor,” stated Arpan Sheth, Partner at Bain & Company.
High-frequency purchase categories, including grocery, lifestyle, and general merchandise, are projected to account for around 70 percent of the incremental growth of the e-retail sector by 2030, with penetration levels anticipated to increase two to four times from current figures.
E-retail has reached beyond tier 2 cities into tier 3 and even smaller locales, with 60 percent of new customers since 2020 and 45 percent of orders since 2023 coming from these regions.
The seller ecosystem is diversifying as well, with 60 percent of sellers onboarded since 2021 originating from tier 2 or smaller cities.
“India has established itself as the world’s second-largest e-retail market by shopper base, boasting over 270 million online shoppers fueling a $60 billion industry,” remarked Vijay Iyer, Vice President and General Manager, Flipkart Ads.
