Tel Aviv, Feb 24 (NationPress) Israel and India are urged to adopt a vigilant approach rather than succumbing to alarmism by engaging in deeper strategic discussions with NATO allies, enhancing non-proliferation frameworks, and strengthening regional diplomacy. A report released on Tuesday emphasizes that discreet preventive actions are often more effective than overt confrontations.

In an article for the 'Times of Israel', Sergio Restelli, an Italian political advisor, author, and geopolitical specialist, indicated that both Jerusalem and New Delhi should remain observant as Prime Minister Narendra Modi gears up for his visit to Israel. The dynamics between Turkey and Pakistan, along with potential concerns like Turkey's nuclear aspirations, necessitate closer examination.

“When discussions about nuclear proliferation arise, the focus typically shifts to Iran or North Korea. However, a growing concern that remains underexplored in global conversations is the emergence of a potential Turkish nuclear arsenal,” Restelli remarked.

He referenced Michael Rubin, Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, who stressed that India, in particular, should not dismiss this scenario—a warning that requires thorough consideration in both New Delhi and Jerusalem.

“As a NATO member and a longstanding participant in the global non-proliferation regime, Turkey hosts US tactical nuclear weapons under NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangements. Although Ankara is formally committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has previously raised questions about why some nations can possess nuclear weapons while others are denied,” Restelli elaborated.

“Coupled with Turkey's increasingly assertive regional behavior—from Syria to Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean—this rhetoric has led security analysts to question Ankara’s long-term objectives,” he added.

The report indicates that the implications for Israel are both immediate and strategic.

According to the report, Israel has followed a policy of nuclear ambiguity, employing deterrence without explicit declaration, while its security strategy focuses on maintaining qualitative military superiority in a volatile environment.

“The prospect of a Turkish nuclear capability—regardless of whether it is presented as defensive—could significantly alter regional dynamics. Turkey is not a marginal player; it wields considerable influence throughout the Levant, maintains ties with certain Islamist political factions, and has had a complicated relationship with Jerusalem over the past decade,” the report noted.

India's challenges, though distinct, are equally serious, characterized by its strategic landscape shaped by two nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan and China.

“Turkey’s deepening ties with Islamabad on various diplomatic and defense matters have certainly caught New Delhi’s attention. A Turkish nuclear capability, especially if paired with enhanced defense collaboration with Pakistan, would further complicate India's security considerations throughout West Asia and beyond,” it stated.

The report contends that the critical question is not if Turkey will develop a nuclear weapon imminently, but rather whether the global community is ready for the geopolitical ramifications should it decide to do so. In an already precarious environment struggling to manage proliferation challenges, a new nuclear-armed power at the nexus of Europe and the Middle East would not only disrupt regional balances but could also catalyze the unraveling of the global non-proliferation framework itself.