Will NDA Outpace INDIA Bloc in Bihar with Near 50% Vote Share?
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Synopsis
As Bihar gears up for its crucial elections, intriguing predictions emerge from the Matrize-IANS survey, forecasting a significant lead for the NDA. With potential vote shares nearing 50%, this political battle promises to be a thrilling spectacle. What does this mean for the future of Bihar's political landscape?
Key Takeaways
- NDA is likely to achieve about 49% vote share.
- RJD-led Opposition expected to secure 36%.
- Jan Suraaj Party anticipated to get 7% vote share.
- JD(U) expected to increase its vote share to 18%.
- Congress could struggle with only 8% vote share.
Patna, Oct 6 (NationPress) With the declaration of the election timeline in Bihar, the race for a critical political contest in the Hindi heartland has commenced, generating excitement regarding the electoral statistics.
In one of the initial election assessments, the Matrize Opinion Poll forecasts a decisive and overwhelming triumph for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the upcoming state elections. Although the RJD-led Opposition is anticipated to present a challenge, it is unlikely to be sufficient to dislodge the Nitish Kumar administration, even in the face of a significant anti-incumbency wave.
According to a survey executed by Matrize News Communications in partnership with IANS, the NDA is projected to obtain 49 percent of the vote share, resulting in 150-160 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left coalition) is expected to secure 36 percent, translating to approximately 70-85 seats within the 243-member Bihar Assembly.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, a newcomer in the Bihar political landscape, has drawn considerable attention from analysts and is expected to achieve a modest 7 percent vote share, potentially winning 2-5 seats independently.
Other parties, such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), are likely to accumulate 7 percent, equating to 7-10 seats. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is projected to struggle and is expected to receive only 1 percent of the vote share.
The Matrize Survey indicates that both the BJP and the RJD are predicted to excel in this electrifying electoral contest, each anticipated to garner 21 percent of the vote share.
Despite launching a robust ‘vote chori’ campaign ahead of the elections, Congress is expected to falter, settling at merely 8 percent of the vote share.
Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is projected to enhance its standing compared to the 2020 elections, with an expected 18 percent vote share and 60-65 seats.
The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by Chirag Paswan, is anticipated to maintain its position with a 6 percent vote share, contributing 4-6 seats to the NDA.
Point of View
It is crucial to recognize that while the Matrize-IANS survey showcases a strong lead for the NDA, the political dynamics in Bihar are complex and ever-evolving. Voter sentiments can shift rapidly, and the RJD-led Opposition, despite challenges, may still pose a significant threat. Understanding these dynamics is essential as we move closer to the elections.
NationPress
06/10/2025
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the predicted vote share for the NDA in Bihar?
The NDA is projected to secure approximately 49% of the vote share according to the Matrize-IANS survey.
How many seats is the NDA expected to win?
The NDA is anticipated to win between 150 to 160 seats in the Bihar Assembly.
What vote share is the RJD-led Opposition expected to receive?
The RJD-led Opposition, part of the Mahagathbandhan, is expected to garner around 36% of the vote share.
What impact could anti-incumbency have on the elections?
Despite a strong anti-incumbency wave, the survey suggests that it may not be enough to unseat the Nitish Kumar government.
What is the expected performance of the JD(U)?
The JD(U) is projected to improve its performance with an expected vote share of 18%, potentially securing 60 to 65 seats.
