Is Nitish Kumar the Leader for All Seasons?

Synopsis
Key Takeaways
- Nitish Kumar is the longest-serving Chief Minister of Bihar.
- He aspires to lead the NDA government for another full term.
- The 2020 elections saw significant challenges for his party.
- Anti-incumbency sentiment may play a crucial role in the upcoming elections.
- Emerging political rivals pose a threat to his leadership.
New Delhi, Sep 29 (NationPress) Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar currently holds the title of the longest-serving premier in the state's history. Should he resume leadership of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government and complete a full five-year term, he would rank among India's three longest-serving Chief Ministers.
The other two, Pawan Kumar Chamling of Sikkim and Naveen Patnaik of Odisha, have been in office for over 24 consecutive years, while Jyoti Basu of West Bengal stepped down after more than 23 years and four months of service.
With the Bihar Assembly elections approaching in October, Nitish Kumar will have accumulated 19 years and eight months in office, and he aspires to be recognized as a leader for all seasons. Yet, under the 'first-past-the-post' electoral system, where a candidate can win by a mere single vote, several challenges lie ahead.
During the 2020 Assembly elections, Chirag Paswan's candidates significantly influenced the outcome, as his Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is believed to have divided pro-incumbency votes. This division reportedly led to the defeats of several candidates from Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) in various constituencies.
In approximately 30 seats, LJP candidates garnered more votes than the margin between the winning candidate and the JD (U) runner-up, even if they lost.
While Paswan has not publicly criticized Nitish Kumar's governance as he did before the last Assembly elections, he remains cautious with his strategy.
The real situation will become clearer once the NDA's seat-sharing formula is established, particularly as his former ally and now critic, Prashant Kishor, is reportedly forming an independent political base with his newly launched Jan Suraaj Party (JSP).
Kishor has accused his former boss and the government of administrative shortcomings and corruption. Once celebrated as “Susashanbabu” or “Mr. Good Administrator”, Nitish Kumar is now facing allegations regarding governance, development, and other deliverables from opposition parties. Additionally, there is an anti-incumbency sentiment after a prolonged period in power, during which he has been accused of political flip-flopping to maintain his position.
In 2010, he contested the Bihar Assembly elections in collaboration with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), securing 115 of the 141 seats.
In 2015, the JD (U) allied with Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) as part of a Janata Parivar Alliance, which included support from the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party. His candidates won 71 of the 101 seats they contested.
However, he switched allegiances again before the end of his term, aligning with the BJP.
The 2020 election marked a further decline, with the JD (U) finishing as the third-largest party, behind the now-opposing RJD and the BJP.
Nitish Kumar’s party secured 43 of the 115 seats it contested, while the BJP claimed 74 of 110. Meanwhile, the RJD emerged as the single-largest party in the Assembly, securing one seat more than the BJP, having fielded candidates in 144 constituencies.
In 2015, his shift was perceived as a protest against Narendra Modi's selection as Prime Minister, as he appeared to aspire for a larger role at the national level following the NDA's overwhelming victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Furthermore, despite declaring each election as his last, he has steadfastly remained in office, accumulating 'flip-flops' against him. Recently, he has shown signs of the toll of age and administrative pressures.
Rumors about his son, Nishant, stepping into his role ahead of this year's Assembly elections were strongly denied by JD (U) officials.
Currently, it appears that the 74-year-old Nitish Kumar aims to demonstrate that he is still a leader for all seasons, even as he navigates the autumn—if not winter—of his political career.