Ferrous Sector Anticipates Robust Q4 Performance; COAL India Expected to Show Positive EBITDA Growth
Synopsis
Ferrous players are gearing up for a strong Q4, with rising prices of hot-rolled coil and rebar offsetting increased coking coal costs. This favorable market trend has COAL India projected to report significant EBITDA growth, driven by heightened demand and improved e-auction realizations.
Key Takeaways
Strong Q4 results anticipated for ferrous players.
COAL India expected to see over 46% EBITDA growth .
Rising prices of hot-rolled coils and rebar driving profits.
Increased coking coal costs may pressure margins.
Non-ferrous sector projected to deliver healthy earnings growth .
New Delhi, April 9 (NationPress) Ferrous market players are anticipated to deliver impressive results for the fourth quarter (Q4), buoyed by a significant rise in hot-rolled coil and rebar prices, which have effectively countered the impact of elevated coking coal costs, according to a report released on Thursday.
The analysis from Emkay Global Financial Services indicates that COAL is poised to experience substantial quarter-on-quarter EBITDA growth, projecting an increase of over 46 percent to approximately Rs 115 billion. This growth is attributed to enhanced e-auction realizations and improved sales driven by escalating power demand.
Prices for HRC and rebar surged by around 14 percent and 21 percent respectively on a sequential basis, fueled by a strong demand climate, increased government investment in infrastructure, and the introduction of safeguard duties toward the end of Q3.
The report states, "We are initiating coverage on the metals sector with a neutral-to-positive outlook for both ferrous and non-ferrous entities." It predicts that Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) will spearhead the gains in Q4, benefitting from a favorable product mix favoring long products. The non-ferrous sector is expected to witness robust growth, driven by higher prices for aluminum and silver, along with the depreciation of the Indian rupee, which will benefit certain private companies. Meanwhile, mining and related sectors may exhibit mixed performance, according to the report.
Coking coal prices have increased to an average of $232 per tonne in Q4, up from $199 per tonne in Q3, which may create modest pressure on EBITDA margins for ferrous companies, despite realizations more than compensating for input cost inflation.
The report forecasts a healthy sequential earnings growth for the non-ferrous sector, supported by approximately 13 percent higher aluminum prices, a remarkable 51 percent increase in silver prices, a slight 2 percent rise in zinc, and about a 3 percent depreciation of the rupee.
Performance in mining and related segments is expected to vary significantly.
The report estimates that earnings for ferrous players over the fiscal years 2027-28 will be bolstered by extended safeguard measures, an anticipated demand growth of around 8 percent, and production cuts in China.
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Point of View
It is essential to recognize the promising outlook for the ferrous sector in the fourth quarter. The robust price increases in key materials and COAL India's anticipated earnings growth underscore the resilience of this industry amidst fluctuating costs. This is not just about numbers; it's a reflection of strategic investments and the government's role in fostering infrastructure development.
NationPress
25 Jul 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors are contributing to the strong Q4 results for ferrous players?
The rise in prices for hot-rolled coils and rebar, along with improved e-auction realizations and heightened demand, are key factors driving strong Q4 results for ferrous players.
What is the expected EBITDA growth for COAL India?
COAL India is expected to report an over 46 percent increase in quarter-on-quarter EBITDA, translating to approximately Rs 115 billion.
How have coking coal prices impacted the ferrous sector?
Coking coal prices have risen to an average of $232 per tonne in Q4, which may put some pressure on EBITDA margins for ferrous players, although realized prices are expected to offset this inflation.
What does the report predict for the non-ferrous sector?
The report forecasts healthy sequential earnings growth for the non-ferrous sector, driven by higher aluminum and silver prices, along with the depreciation of the rupee.
What are the long-term expectations for ferrous players?
Earnings for ferrous players over fiscal years 2027-28 are projected to be supported by extended safeguard measures and anticipated demand growth of about 8 percent.
