Gold prices on MCX dip as investors eye Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole
Synopsis
Gold on MCX erased most of its early losses on 28 August even as spot gold slipped 0.5% globally, with the market in a holding pattern ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address. A sticky US PCE print at 3.7% and a 72% market-implied probability of a December rate hike are keeping bullion under pressure — and the next move hinges almost entirely on what Warsh signals.
Key Takeaways
MCX Gold October futures recovered from early losses to trade just 0.04 per cent lower at ₹1,58,835 per 10 grams as of 12:35 pm IST on 28 August .
MCX Silver September contracts gained 0.82 per cent or ₹2,023 to ₹2,42,674 per kg .
Spot gold fell 0.5 per cent to $4,576.30 per ounce ; US gold futures eased 0.8 per cent to $4,629 .
Domestic gold prices have fallen nearly ₹5,000 per 10 grams over four sessions, partly due to rupee appreciation.
US PCE inflation held at 3.7 per cent year-on-year in July, above the 3.6 per cent forecast, complicating Fed rate expectations.
Markets price a 36 per cent chance of a September US rate hike and 72 per cent for December, per the CME FedWatch Tool .
Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) recovered sharply from early losses on Friday, 28 August, trading nearly flat even as investors held back, awaiting key remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The cautious mood follows a near ₹5,000 per 10 grams slide in gold prices over four consecutive sessions.
MCX Gold and Silver Performance
MCX Gold October futures opened firmly in the red — down roughly 0.4 per cent — but staged a recovery to trade just 0.04 per cent lower at ₹1,58,835 per 10 grams as of 12:35 pm IST. Meanwhile, MCX Silver September contracts outperformed, gaining 0.82 per cent or ₹2,023 to reach ₹2,42,674 per kg.
Spot 24-carat gold in the physical market was quoted at ₹1,58,226 per 10 grams at mid-day, marginally lower than ₹1,58,386 recorded on Thursday, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
Global Gold Signals and Rupee Pressure
On international markets, spot gold slipped 0.5 per cent to $4,576.30 per ounce in early trade, while US gold futures eased 0.8 per cent to $4,629. Analysts noted that the rupee's recent appreciation has added an additional layer of downward pressure on domestic gold prices, compounding the global softness.
The four-session decline of nearly ₹5,000 per 10 grams reflects a confluence of a stronger rupee and global uncertainty over the US interest-rate trajectory — a combination that has kept bullion buyers on the sidelines.
Fed Rate Path and US Inflation Data
Traders are closely tracking signals on the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate path ahead of Chair Warsh's address at Jackson Hole. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have trimmed the probability of a US rate hike in September to around 36 per cent, while the chance of a December hike remains elevated near 72 per cent.
Complicating the Fed's calculus, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7 per cent year-on-year through July — unchanged from June and slightly above the economists' consensus forecast of 3.6 per cent. A stickier-than-expected inflation print typically supports a tighter monetary stance, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.
Technical Levels to Watch
Analysts have identified key price zones for both metals. MCX Gold finds support in the ₹1,57,600–₹1,57,000 band, with resistance clustered at ₹1,59,500–₹1,60,000. For MCX Silver, support lies at ₹2,40,000–₹2,39,000, while resistance is seen at ₹2,44,000–₹2,45,000.
With Warsh's remarks still pending and US inflation data offering no clear relief, bullion markets are likely to remain range-bound until fresh directional cues emerge from Jackson Hole.
Point of View
₹5,000 slide in domestic gold prices is not just a global story — the rupee's appreciation is doing meaningful work on the downside, a dynamic that often gets buried under Fed headlines. With US PCE inflation at 3.7 per cent and a December hike priced at 72 per cent, the rate environment is turning incrementally hostile for gold. What Warsh says at Jackson Hole will matter, but the more instructive signal will be whether he signals a data-dependent pause or a hawkish hold — the difference between a floor for bullion and a fresh leg lower.
NationPress
28 Aug 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold prices fall on MCX on 28 August?
MCX gold prices dipped on 28 August due to a combination of global pressure — spot gold slipping 0.5 per cent on US rate uncertainty — and domestic rupee appreciation, which makes gold cheaper in local currency terms. Prices had already fallen nearly ₹5,000 per 10 grams over the preceding four sessions.
What is the Jackson Hole symposium and why does it matter for gold?
The Jackson Hole economic symposium is an annual gathering of central bankers and economists where the US Federal Reserve Chair often signals future monetary policy direction. Remarks hinting at rate hikes typically weigh on gold, since higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bullion.
What are the key technical levels for MCX gold and silver?
For MCX gold, analysts see support at ₹1,57,600–₹1,57,000 and resistance at ₹1,59,500–₹1,60,000. MCX silver has support at ₹2,40,000–₹2,39,000 and resistance at ₹2,44,000–₹2,45,000.
What does the US PCE inflation data mean for gold prices?
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 3.7 per cent year-on-year through July — unchanged from June and above the 3.6 per cent forecast. Sticky inflation increases the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, which tends to suppress gold prices by strengthening the dollar and raising real yields.
What is the current market probability of a US rate hike?
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets assign roughly a 36 per cent probability to a US rate hike in September and around 72 per cent for December, reflecting expectations that the Fed will stay cautious but retain a tightening bias given persistent inflation.
