MCX gold futures slipped to ₹1,45,000 per 10 grams by 10:35 am IST on Wednesday, 8 July, extending losses for a fourth consecutive session as fresh US military strikes on Iran rattled commodity markets. Silver also came under pressure, while Brent crude surged more than 3 per cent — an unusual divergence that analysts say reflects the market's risk calculus around the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold and Silver Prices on MCX

Gold futures for the August 5 contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) opened at ₹1,45,200 per 10 grams, down ₹192 from the previous close of ₹1,45,392. The yellow metal subsequently slid to an intraday low of ₹1,44,750, a decline of ₹642 or 0.44 per cent, before steadying around ₹1,45,000, lower by ₹392 or 0.27 per cent.

Silver futures for the September 4 contract opened at ₹2,30,015 per kg, down ₹842 from the prior close of ₹2,30,857. The white metal hit an intraday low of ₹2,28,925, falling as much as ₹1,932 or 0.83 per cent, before trading at ₹2,29,401, off by ₹1,456 or 0.63 per cent.

International Markets Echo the Weakness

Selling pressure was equally visible on global exchanges. COMEX gold traded 0.43 per cent lower at $4,139 per ounce, while COMEX silver declined 0.54 per cent to around $61 per ounce. The synchronised decline across domestic and international benchmarks underscores the broad-based nature of the sell-off.

Technical Signals Point to Continued Weakness

According to commodity market experts, gold is now trading below its key 20-, 50-, and 100-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) on the four-hour chart — a configuration that signals continued downward momentum. Rising open interest alongside falling prices, they noted, points to fresh short build-up in the current contract.

Silver, too, is trading below its 50-, 100-, and 200-period EMAs. Analysts cautioned that a slip below the crucial support of around ₹2.23 lakh per kg could open the door to steeper losses.

The Geopolitical Trigger: US Strikes and Hormuz Tensions

The immediate catalyst for the precious metals sell-off was a fresh round of US military strikes on Iran, carried out after three oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz were attacked, according to the US military. Washington also moved to revoke licences related to Iranian oil exports, further escalating regional tensions.

The development presents a counter-intuitive market reaction: typically, geopolitical flare-ups drive safe-haven demand for gold. This time, however, the dollar strengthened on the back of the strikes, weighing on dollar-denominated metals. This is the fourth straight session in which gold has failed to attract safe-haven buying despite a worsening Middle East situation.

Crude Oil Surges on Supply Fears

While precious metals fell, crude oil moved sharply higher. International benchmark Brent crude rose more than 3 per cent to trade above $76 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed over 3 per cent to above $72 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil supply transits — remains the focal point of supply-disruption anxiety.

The divergence between falling gold and rising crude is being watched closely; if crude-driven inflation expectations firm up, gold could find renewed support in the sessions ahead.