India recorded robust double-digit growth in the global cellular IoT module market during Q1 2026 (January–March), driven by government-mandated smart meter deployments, rising adoption of POS terminals, asset trackers, and commercial telematics, according to a new report by Counterpoint Research. The global market itself expanded 4 per cent year-on-year in the same quarter, with steady growth projected through the rest of 2026.

India's Position in the Global Market

India retained its standing as the world's fastest-growing cellular IoT module market, according to Counterpoint Research. The momentum is underpinned by a multi-year demand cycle that analysts describe as largely insulated from geopolitical supply chain pressures.

'Government-mandated smart meter deployments and increasing telematics adoption in commercial fleet management have created a multi-year demand cycle that remains largely insulated from geopolitical supply chain pressures,' said Tina Lu, Principal Analyst at Counterpoint Research.

China's Volume Lead Narrows as Demand Softens

China continued to dominate global shipments by volume, but recorded a 2 per cent year-on-year decline in Q1 2026. Counterpoint Research attributed this primarily to normal Q1 seasonality — the Chinese New Year holiday period dampened demand from domestic OEMs across asset tracking, POS, and telematics segments. A decline in passenger vehicle sales further compounded the weakness.

Technology Breakdown: 4G Cat 1 bis and 5G Lead Growth

Performance varied sharply across technology categories. 4G Cat 1 bis module shipments grew 12 per cent year-on-year, fuelled by strong demand from smart meters, POS terminals, asset trackers, and telematics across developing markets including India, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America, according to Lu.

5G emerged as the fastest-growing cellular technology segment, posting 39 per cent year-on-year growth, driven particularly by router/CPE devices, connected PCs, and automotive applications. Most other technology categories recorded declines during the quarter.

Memory Cost Pressures to Push Module Prices Higher in H2 2026

Cellular IoT module average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to rise in the second half of 2026, as escalating memory costs force vendors to increase prices to protect margins, according to Mohit Agrawal, Director of IoT Practice at Counterpoint Research.

Ongoing memory shortages are expected to disproportionately affect high-memory-density modules, potentially slowing shipment growth in those segments while sustaining demand for lower-memory-density alternatives. Agrawal noted that elevated prices are also likely to begin extending into the low-end segment, covering Cat 1 and LTE-M modules. Despite these headwinds, the global cellular IoT module market is projected to maintain steady growth through 2026, he said.

The trajectory underscores India's growing strategic weight in global IoT supply chains — a position that is likely to attract further vendor focus as demand cycles in China remain uneven.