What is the Market Outlook for the India-US Trade Deal?

Mumbai, July 6 (NationPress) After experiencing a period of profit booking last week, with broader indices trading at high levels, market participants are set to closely monitor the forthcoming Q1 earnings starting next week, along with the outcome of the interim India-US trade deal before the July 9 deadline, analysts stated on Sunday.

Moreover, the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend could have implications for global oil prices.

“From a macroeconomic perspective, the broader economy is positioned to benefit from favorable conditions such as lower inflation and decreasing interest rates. A positive resolution from the US-India trade discussions could enhance market sentiment, particularly aiding trade-sensitive sectors like IT, pharma, and auto,” remarked Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited.

Markets concluded last week positively despite a largely rangebound trading scenario. The Nifty finished at 25,461, up 55.7 points, while the Sensex increased by 193 points to close at 83,432.

The broader market received support from pivotal sectors such as banking, pharma, IT, realty, oil and gas, and media, which gained between 0.4 percent and 1 percent.

However, sectors like metals, telecom, and auto lagged, limiting overall gains.

“Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the expected US-India trade accord, with the tariff deadline approaching. A positive outcome from the negotiations could serve as a significant catalyst for the next phase of the rally, especially in light of the recent lack of directional momentum. This event is being diligently monitored by institutional participants and could dictate the near-term trend,” according to a note from Choice Broking.

Based on Fibonacci extensions, the next major targets are projected at 27,300 and 28,600. Conversely, crucial supports are identified at 25,000 and 24,500, where buying interest is likely to arise, it noted.

Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty index concluded at 57,031.90 last week, reflecting a 0.72 percent drop from the previous week's close.

The weekly chart suggests rejection at higher levels; however, the index has successfully held above the significant 57,000 mark. The selling pressure at elevated levels indicates a potential pause in the ongoing uptrend, suggesting a likely sideways phase in the near term, as per the Choice Broking note.

For the current expiry, put options reveal the highest concentration near the 57,000 and 56,500 strikes, marking these as key support levels. In contrast, substantial open interest in call options at 57,000 and 57,500 indicates potential resistance, predicting a likely trading range of 56,500–57,500 in the upcoming sessions, analysts stated.

FIIs have adopted a cautious stance amid elevated market valuations and mixed global signals, while DIIs continue to bolster support, aiding in stabilizing sentiment.