India’s GDP Growth Projected to Stay Strong with Updated Base Year
Synopsis
As India prepares to unveil its new GDP series with a base year of 2022–23, significant changes—including enhanced GST data usage—aim to provide a clearer picture of the economy's current state, ensuring more accurate growth projections.
Key Takeaways
India is revising its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23.
The new methodology will incorporate GST data for more accurate estimates.
Projected GDP growth for FY26 is 7.4 percent, driven by domestic demand.
High-frequency data indicates robust economic activity.
The release of new GDP estimates is set for Friday.
New Delhi, Feb 27 (NationPress) With the new GDP series based on the year 2022–23 set for release on Friday, a sub-committee formed by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has proposed an increased integration of GST data in the GDP estimates. This initiative is part of MoSPI's effort to revise the base year for the National Accounts to FY 2022–23.
In the previous 2011-12 series, GST data were utilized in compiling the Quarterly National Accounts and certain sectors of the Annual National Accounts.
India is transitioning its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. This adjustment, alongside an updated Consumer Price Index (CPI) base year of 2024, aims to accurately represent the current economic landscape, which now includes a notable shift towards digital commerce and services.
This comprehensive update seeks to enhance the measurement of the informal sector and introduces new data sources like GST, potentially positioning India as the fourth-largest economy globally. The new methodology will utilize more detailed data, including GST records, e-Vahan (vehicle registrations), and insights on natural gas consumption.
According to the first advance estimate, GDP is projected to grow by 7.4 percent in FY26, primarily driven by domestic demand.
SBI research forecasts that India's GDP growth for the third quarter of FY26 will be around 8-8.1 percent, highlighting the economy's strong performance amidst global challenges. High-frequency activity data suggests robust economic activity in Q3 FY26 (October-December 2025).
Another report from Union Bank of India indicates that GDP growth for the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3 FY26) is expected to remain high at 8.3 percent, despite facing a negative base effect.
The Second Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26, along with GDP estimates from the past three financial years and quarterly GDP estimates based on the new base year of 2022-23, will be unveiled on Friday.
Point of View
The anticipated release of India's GDP estimates based on a new base year represents a significant step towards accurately reflecting the country’s economic dynamics. With the integration of GST data, this revision could enhance our understanding of growth trajectories amidst both domestic demand and global challenges.
NationPress
12 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the new base year for India's GDP?
The new base year for India's GDP is 2022-23.
Why is GST data important for GDP estimates?
GST data is crucial as it allows for more accurate tracking of economic activities and contributes to a better representation of the informal sector.
What is the projected GDP growth for FY26?
The GDP is estimated to grow by 7.4 percent in FY26, primarily driven by domestic demand.
When will the new GDP estimates be released?
The new GDP estimates will be released on Friday.
How does the revised GDP methodology affect India's economy?
The revised methodology aims to provide a clearer picture of India's economic structure, potentially positioning it as the world's fourth-largest economy.
