Will the Revised Data Series Significantly Affect GDP Growth Estimates?
Synopsis
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is optimistic that the revised national accounts series will not significantly alter India's GDP growth estimates. MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg emphasizes the use of real-time data to enhance accuracy in economic projections, while also addressing the complexities of measuring the informal economy.
Key Takeaways
The revised national accounts series is not expected to significantly alter GDP growth estimates.
The Ministry is enhancing the use of real-time data from GSTN for better accuracy.
Capacity-building workshops for states will support Gross State Domestic Product estimates.
Measuring the informal economy remains a critical challenge.
Inflation coverage will expand to include digital pricing data.
New Delhi, Dec 23 (NationPress) The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) anticipates that the upcoming revised national accounts series, set to be released in February next year, will not lead to substantial alterations in India’s GDP growth projections, according to MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg on Tuesday.
“It is premature to comment on its potential impact on GDP figures. Generally, we do not foresee major deviations from our prior expectations,” Garg informed reporters in the capital.
The government is preparing to unveil the new GDP series alongside a fresh inflation series. The updated national accounts framework will also present back-series data for 2022-23, 2023-24, and 2024-25, ensuring continuity and facilitating comparison.
India’s growth outlook has already seen an improvement following a surprising 8.2 percent growth recorded in the second quarter, which has prompted an upward revision in growth forecasts for 2025-26. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adjusted its GDP growth prediction to 7.3 percent.
A crucial element of the revised methodology is the increased utilization of real-time data sources, especially Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) filings.
“We now possess an abundance of real-time data from GSTN, which will assist us in estimating state domestic product more accurately. Enhanced triangulation methods will be at our disposal,” Garg stated.
The ministry plans to initiate capacity-building workshops for states aimed at refining Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) estimates.
Garg emphasized the ministry’s commitment to improving the measurement of the informal economy — historically one of the most complex areas of national accounting. “The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) will inform the base revision in GDP, providing more detailed and frequent data now available,” he elaborated.
During the same event, Chief Economic Adviser to the government, V Anantha Nageswaran, highlighted the inherent challenges in measuring informality.
“Assessing informality is not a straightforward task due to the absence of standard metrics worldwide,” Nageswaran noted. “We often overestimate informality because small enterprises frequently intertwine personal and business accounts.”
He pointed out that small businesses often obscure the distinction between personal and business finances, leading to potential overestimations.
Garg also mentioned that the ministry is collaborating with states to create satellite accounts for emerging and under-represented sectors, including the digital economy, tourism, and culture, in alignment with the forthcoming System of National Accounts 2025 revision, which is expected to be accepted globally by 2029. Inflation coverage will be broadened across urban and rural markets, incorporating e-commerce and other digital pricing data to accurately reflect evolving consumption patterns.
Point of View
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation's cautious optimism regarding the revised GDP growth estimates reflects a pragmatic understanding of economic fluctuations. Their commitment to utilizing real-time data signifies a progressive approach, ensuring that India remains transparent and accurate in its economic assessments, particularly in measuring the informal economy.
NationPress
11 May 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expected impact of the revised national accounts series on India's GDP growth estimates?
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation does not anticipate significant changes in GDP growth estimates following the release of the revised national accounts series.
When will the revised national accounts series be released?
The revised national accounts series is scheduled for release in February next year.
What new methodologies will be used in the revised GDP estimates?
The revised methodology will include expanded real-time data sources, particularly from Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) filings, to improve the accuracy of GDP estimates.
How is the government addressing the informal economy in GDP calculations?
The Ministry is focusing on enhancing the measurement of the informal economy through the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) to provide more detailed data.
What is the revised GDP growth forecast by the Reserve Bank of India?
The Reserve Bank of India has raised its GDP growth forecast for the economy to 7.3 percent.
